The Iranian UAVs bound to be shipped to Russia are, according to U.S. assessments, almost a declaration of war on NATO, and Iran could end up regretting it.
I doubt U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan would have talked about the assessment that Tehran was preparing to supply drones, including combat drones, for the conflict in Ukraine had he not been sure the information he provided to journalists was reliable.
3 View gallery
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Russian President Vladimir Putin
(Photo: Reuters, AFP)
Just four years ago, when former U.S. president Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, the Iranians sought help from the Europeans. Now, they have turned against them completely.
Even if the UAV deal between Iran and Russia doesn't go through, this marks a dramatic shift in Iran's stance as it turns into a direct threat to NATO countries and the EU.
Moreover, the announcement of the military drone package and the scheduled three-headed meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian and Turkish counterparts marks the first time Iran is taking Russia's side in the battle between the superpowers. Ergo, Tehran has taken an active part in the global confrontation in favor of the Russia-China bloc.
From here on out, Iran is no longer just a potential threat to peace and stability in the Middle East owing to its nuclear program and proxies throughout the region, but also an important supporting actor in the confrontation against the liberal world order led by the United States in Europe and elsewhere.
This isn't the first time Iran has sided with the anti-Western bloc. Iran has already signed a long-term, multi-billion agreement that grants China a foothold in the Middle East, but this is the first time that Iran gets off the fence and actively helps Russia in the bloody conflict against Ukraine and NATO allies (including Turkey and Canada).
This confirms what Israel has been claiming for years: Iran is not only aspiring for regional hegemony but also to become a significant actor on the world stage. This is why it develops long-range missiles and drones that can reach Israel, Europe and maybe even North America. In supplying Russia with drones, Iran declares on which side it belongs and begins to pursue its goals on the international stage.
This move entails many consequences. It may harden the United States' stance on the prospect of Iran developing and producing nuclear weapons, since from now on this weapon is not only a threat to its Middle Eastern neighbors but to Europe and the U.S. too.
Biden would have to reconsider whether to sign a new nuclear deal or take Israel's advice and turn the screw on Iran, including presenting a credible military option if the Islamic Republic continues nuclear arms or conventional weapon systems that threaten the West.
The use of Iranian drones by the Russians in Ukraine would allow the Iranians to gain experience and perfect their already robust drone apparatus that can function effectively for thousands of miles.
It is safe to assume that Iranian advisers would stay on Russian soil, but will be stationed close to the front line with Ukraine to help their Russian trainees operate the systems they will provide them.
This will oblige the United States, and possibly Israel as well, to develop methods and means to help the Ukrainian army neutralize the Iranian drones.
Israel may also have to abandon its neutrality in the Ukraine conflict because any improvements to Iran's drones would directly endanger us.
Additionally, Israel would have to reassess whether Russia's willingness to use Iranian drones for reconnaissance missions and attacking Ukrainian targets poses a direct threat to us and the U.S.
The Russians accepting Iranian aid may also affect their approach toward Israeli activities in Syria against Iranian entrenchment. This may be even a Russian declaration they are taking Iran's side, which could restrict Israel's freedom of action in Syrian and Lebanese airspace.
Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gants now have a very good reason to ask Biden for offensive weapon systems that could help Israel and its allies in the Middle East protect themselves against a nuclear Iran as well as against drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles the Islamic Republic is churning out at breakneck speed.