Iran's negotiating posture has hardened sharply since the war began, with the Revolutionary Guards exerting growing influence over decision-making, and it will demand significant concessions from the United States if mediation efforts lead to serious negotiations, three senior sources in Tehran said.
In any talks with the U.S., Iran would not only demand an end to the war but concessions that are likely red lines for U.S. President Donald Trump - guarantees against future military action, compensation for wartime losses and formal control of the Strait of Hormuz, the sources said.
Iran would also refuse to negotiate any limitations to its ballistic missile program, they said, an issue that had been a red line for Tehran during the talks that were taking place when the U.S. and Israel launched their attack last month.
Trump said on Monday that Washington had already had “very, very strong talks” with Tehran more than three weeks into the war, but Iran has publicly denied this
The three senior sources said Iran had only had preliminary discussions with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt over whether the groundwork existed for talks with the United States on ending the war.
A European official said on Monday that, while there had been no direct negotiations between Iran and the U.S., Egypt, Pakistan and Gulf states were relaying messages. A Pakistani official and a second source also said on Monday that direct talks on ending the war could be held in Islamabad this week.
If any such talks were arranged, Iran would send Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to attend, the three Iranian sources said, cautioning that any decisions would ultimately lie with the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Three senior Israeli officials also said on Tuesday that, although Trump seemed determined to reach a deal, they viewed it as unlikely that Tehran would agree to U.S. demands, which they believed would include an end to Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
Iran's use of ballistic missiles and its ability to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas usually flows, have been its most effective responses to the U.S.-Israel strikes.
It could not agree to give these up without leaving itself defenseless against further attacks, analysts say.
Iranian strategists may also be unwilling to trust agreements with the U.S. and Israel after coming under attack following an earlier deal last year, despite being involved in talks that were then current. They have also watched Israel continue to strike Lebanon and Gaza after ceasefires there.
Inside Iran, domestic concerns are also constraining Tehran's maneuvering room in negotiations, the senior Iranian sources said.
These concerns include the greater clout of the Revolutionary Guards, uncertainty at the top of the system, with the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei not yet appearing in photographs or video since his appointment, and a public narrative of resilience in the war.