The linkage between the war in Gaza and a possible war in Lebanon is wider than it seems. If the war in Gaza continues for many more months, until "total victory," there is almost certainty that there will also be a total war in Lebanon in 2024. On the other hand, if the war in Gaza can end in a number of weeks, a war in Lebanon could be avoided through diplomacy.
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The explanation for this is simple. Hezbollah is committed, not only by its public statements, to continue the conflict on the northern border as long as the fighting in Gaza is underway. If that war continues, the war with Lebanon is inevitable because of two possible developments: An escalation in cross-border fighting or an Israeli decision to initiate war, prompted by pressure from the displaced residents of northern Israel to end the crisis.
The Israeli interest is to avoid a full-blown war in the north, this year which therefore can be motivation for ending the fighting in Gaza as soon as possible.
But the Israeli government must decide to do so and not remain entrenched in the hollow slogans of "total victory." Israel can demand as the first but not only condition, a quick return of all the hostages being held in Gaza.
For example, since there is great concern in Egypt, the UN, the West and among Arab nations over an Israeli assault on Rafah, Israel can demand that the four Hamas battalions there lay down their arms and surrender, not even to Israel, but to Egypt. The Egyptians can then enter the city and collect the weapons thereby ensuring that no Hamas terrorists are killed. This could serve everyone but Yahya Sinwar.
The lack of a creative Israeli solution would extend the fighting and therefore bring about an unnecessary war with Lebanon.
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Aftermath of an Israeli strike on Nabatieh in S. Lebanon
(Photo: Mahmoud Zayyat / AFP)
If a full-blown war with Lebanon is on the table, the U.S. must be convinced to support it, although it contradicts American policy. Under certain circumstances the Biden administration could agree to back Israel in the fight against Hezbollah but not against the state of Lebanon, and that could spell disaster.
Israel cannot beat Hezbollah within a reasonable time and at a reasonable cost. If it is drawn into war, in which it attempts to destroy the 200,000-rocket arsenal of the Iran-backed group, the Israeli economy would collapse before the goal is achieved. On the other hand Israel is capable of destroying Lebanon's communications, energy and transportation infrastructure easily, and can transform Beirut into rubble.
This is Hezbollah's fear. For years it had represented itself as a patriotic Lebanese organization that protects Lebanon. Destruction of the state would spell disaster for it, and is therefore a deterrence for war with Israel and if one breaks out, it would be a short one.
Giora Eiland Photo: Amit ShaalNow is the time to reach an understanding with the Americans because if that is not achieved, and at the highest levels, Israel would find itself in a serious trouble.
Like in Gaza, wars are not only fought with military might, but also with political thought and that is sorely lacking in Israel.