As Israel warns that Iran is fast approaching the “point of no return” in its nuclear program and defends Operation Rising Lion as necessary to block Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, U.S. intelligence assessments appear to contradict those claims.
A CNN report published Tuesday cites multiple sources concluding that Iran is not actively pursuing nuclear weapons and remains as much as three years away from being able to build and deliver one. According to the report, recent Israeli strikes may have only delayed Iran’s nuclear progress by several months.
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Iran's Natanz enrichment facility before and after Israeli strike
(Photo: AFP PHOTO / © 2025 PLANET LABS PBC)
Despite this, President Donald Trump on Tuesday dismissed the intelligence assessment presented by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. “I don’t care what she said,” he told a CNN reporter aboard Air Force One as he returned from the G7 summit. “I think they were very close.” Gabbard had reiterated in March that U.S. intelligence still believed Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had not revived the suspended 2003 program.
Adding to the mixed signals, Trump’s team posted a quote from U.S. CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla claiming Iran could produce enough enriched uranium for one bomb in a week and for ten within several weeks.
Israel has caused significant damage to Iran’s Natanz enrichment site and struck the vital uranium conversion facility in Isfahan—moves intended to delay any breakout attempt. However, Iran’s fortified Fordow facility remains intact, and the U.S.—the only country known to possess munitions capable of penetrating it—has not joined the military campaign.
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The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that Iran has amassed enough enriched uranium to construct nine nuclear bombs. But experts stress that producing a deliverable weapon involves more than fissile material; it requires an effective delivery system, which Iran may still lack.
Some American intelligence officials have voiced concern that Israel’s ongoing strikes could backfire, pushing Iran to formally pursue nuclear arms. “Iran is reeling,” one official told CNN. “It’s unclear whether they still have the capability or knowledge to build a bomb.”