There is no doubt the freeing the hostages must be a priority, all of them. But just as important is destroying the military capabilities of Hamas and preventing its leadership in Gaza from holding on to power there. This means the IDF must not at this time, or in the near future, end the fighting and withdraw from the Strip, as Yahya Sinwar demands.
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Experience shows that if the Hamas infrastructure remains in place and its senior leadership remains unharmed, then no Israeli can be safe. An IDF withdrawal of forces from Gaza would be regarded as a capitulation to Hamas's extortion by kidnapping. This is not just another bad deal, that would see the release from prison of dangerous terrorists in exchange for a number of Israeli hostages, it would be a complete sacrifice of the security of Israelis and would have significant strategic consequences.
We would all be at risk of being kidnapped by any other Iranian proxy and perhaps eve ISIS or al-Qaida, who will realize that by taking hostages, Israel can be brought to its knees and made to relinquish its critical political and security interests.
No Israel would be able to travel safely abroad without fearing abduction, and that is mostly true for the young travelers who visit third world countries. Furthermore, even a weekend getaway in the north, would be risky.
The macabre desire to abduct Israelis has developed over the years, starting with the 1985 release of security prisoners after the first Lebanon war, through the deals to free Elhanan Tennenbaum from captivity in Lebanon and the price Israel paid for the bodies of killed IDF soldiers, all the way to the scandalous Israeli agreement to free 1,027 prisoners in exchange for IDF soldier Gilad Shalit who was held by Hamas for five years in Gaza.
The natural procession was the mass kidnapping of Israelis on October 7. If Israel allows Sinwar's extortion, keeping him in power in Gaza, the next time would be worse. He and his cohorts would only prepare for the next murderous assault.
It may not come immediately. Hamas would need four to five years to rebuild its military strength as it had done after previous armed conflicts. Under such conditions, no resident of the south should return home or work the fields, knowing he or she would be living on borrowed time. If Hamas's leaders survive, even residents of the southern cities of Ashkelon and Beer Sheba would have to think twice about raising their children there.
Hezbollah increased its military strength two or three-fold after the 2006 Second Lebanon War, after it suffered devastating loss. It was deterred for a number of years but is today challenging the IDF, that must deploy large forces, mostly from the military reserves and evacuation tens of thousands of residents from their homes, fearing the Iran-backed group's elite Radwan force, anti-tank missile fire and rockets.
Leaving Sinwar, Deif and others in Gaza, would result in the same dangers from that border, while Israel's deterrence for all of its enemies, would be lost and any will of moderate Arab nations to normalize their relations with it, would diminish.
For Israelis to live with a modicum of security, not just in the near future but further down the line, the IDF must be allowed to complete its mission to destroy the Hamas military infrastructure above and bellow ground and remove its leaders.
If the Israeli public is patient and the Americans persist in their support of our fight, the hostages could be freed. Their fate would be determined by the amount of pressure placed by Hamas, Israel and the U.S.
Hamas is exerting its pressure first and foremost through the suffering of the hostages and the fear for their lives, felt by the Israeli public and its political leaders. It also makes use of world public opinion that is demanding Israel end its fighting before achieving its goals. Hamas also has time on its side. Sinwar's patients amid the national depression in Israel, does not even require him to do anything but watch as the fractures in the greater public's unity, grow. All he demands is a stop to war and a withdrawal of all troops from Gaza. The rest would be done by Israeli public opinion.
Israel's weapon is its fighting machine, which moves slowly but steadily especially in the southern part of the Strip and around Khan Younis, where the outcome of the war would be determined. Sinwar is afraid as evidenced by his demand to stop the fighting, before negotiating the release of hostages. That is how he believes he would remain in power and in fact win the war. He may not fear death but does want to win and repeat the October 7 massacre more ferociously next time, perhaps also in the West Bank. He is a jihadist at heart and as such, can only be stopped by the IDF.
Israel's pressure can come with the political and military support from the United States. The Americans alone can push Qatar to exert its pressure on Hamas in Gaza and on its leadership in Doha. The American pressure on Qatar and Egypt is still not sufficient to bring about hostage releases but that is the fault of the Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who refuses to allow Washington to achieve some of its stated goals in the region.
Israel cannot use humanitarian aid as pressure on Hamas. Sinwar has no compulsion to ease the suffering of Gaza's Palestinians. The consider it a sacrifice for the ultimate religious cause of destroying Israel and expelling its Jews from the Middle East. So, demands to prevent the supply of food and medicine from entering the strip would do nothing to advance the freeing of hostages.
Israel must show flexibility alongside its military campaign, not only to ensure the continued good will of U.S. President Joe Biden and others in his administration. It must make concessions that could be used by Qatar as incentives to Sinwar. Such flexibility is possible, in my view, on the matter of how many Palestinians prisoners would be released from jail, and the role that the Palestinian Authority would be allowed to play in post-war Gaza and bolstering its strength on the West Bank, to prevent an escalation of violence there.
Netanyahu was right when he cited the failings of the PA but there is no other legitimate Palestinian leadership that can replace it. Besides, Biden wants the PA to play a role and Israel must allow him to continue to support it.
That is why the security cabinet must decide an a clear plan for the day after the war and tell the Americans that what it would be so that Washington would have leverage to use in Qatar. The IDF also needs a plan in place, for its own operational planning.
Israel's failing to outline its post-war plans is a strategic mistake. By allowing far-right members of the cabinet to prevent such a move detrimental to its ability to continue fighting the war.
Absurdly, the IDF may be forced to cease its fire and withdraw without completing its stated mission to destroy Hamas and remove its leaders, just because extremist ministers refuse to allow humanitarian aid to Gaza to cross through the Israeli border point at Kerem Shamlon.
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Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
(Photo: GPO)
The obstinance of Netanyahu, not to outline a plan for post-war Gaza, just because those minister fantasize about rebuilding settlements in the Strip, could cost us the lives of hostages. The current government must stick to the objectives of the war, including the release of hostages, while showing some willingness to compromise on matters that are not directly connected to winning.