The war between Israel and the United States and Iran, along with the opening of the Lebanese front last week, has sharply revived the threat of drones targeting Israel’s civilian rear and IDF bases and facilities.
Unlike previous rounds of fighting, Israel in the current conflict has adopted a policy of vague reporting regarding the types of weapons used against it across the different fronts, the scale of their use, the methods used to counter them and the success rates of interceptions.
The IDF spokesperson no longer provides updates on the number of launches toward Israel or the interception rates of missiles, rockets and drones, in an effort to make it harder for enemies to assess Israel’s interceptor stockpiles.
Unlike earlier conflicts, the military now also has access to a new air defense system based on a high-powered laser called Iron Beam, which was delivered to the military in late December. Developed by the defense company Rafael, the system is designed to intercept drones and rockets at ranges of up to 10 kilometers (6 miles) at minimal cost compared with the much higher cost of interceptors used by the Iron Dome system, which can run into tens of thousands of shekels per interceptor.
However, as of last weekend, according to information obtained by Calcalist, the laser system had not yet been used operationally and had not intercepted any threats directed at Israel.
Under the fog surrounding interception policies, defense officials are not explaining the reasons for this and are not saying where the system is deployed or whether it is already positioned to intercept aerial threats.
According to data from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), since the war began last Saturday, Iran has launched about 600 ballistic missiles and more than 1,500 drones toward 12 countries in the Middle East — most of them toward the United Arab Emirates.
Officials say that, unlike at the start of the Oct. 7 war, the country’s air defense system has significantly improved its ability to deal with the drone threat. Those improvements were already evident during the previous war with Iran last June, when 99% of drone threats were intercepted using a combination of kinetic and electronic systems.
While Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iran continue, Iranian officials have mainly threatened the use of advanced ballistic missiles, including the Khorramshahr-4, which can carry a warhead weighing about one ton of explosives.
Iran claimed last week that it launched such missiles toward Ben Gurion Airport. Despite those threats, Israel’s air defense systems — particularly the Arrow-3 interceptors produced by Israel Aerospace Industries — are capable of intercepting them, similar to other ballistic missiles.
An analysis of launches from Iran over the past week has so far not revealed the use of weapons systems that were not seen in previous conflicts. To the best of current knowledge, there has also been no use of maneuvering missiles designed to challenge Israeli air defense systems.
As in the previous conflict, Iran has at times launched missiles carrying cluster-type warheads. The use of such warheads was also seen in the earlier war and does not represent any new military technological breakthrough.
“We have very strong successes in the field of air defense,” Pini Yungman, president of TSG — jointly owned by Israel Aerospace Industries and the Formula Group — and a former head of Rafael’s air defense division, told Calcalist. “All the systems operate in coordination and are doing a fantastic job.”
One of the key questions regarding the course of the current war concerns the stockpile of interceptor missiles available to Israel and the United States compared with the pace of ballistic missile launches from Iran.
According to Yungman, “The rate of interceptor production in Israel and the United States is higher than it was a year or two ago, and it is satisfactory.”
He said the increased production is taking place in both Israeli and American defense industries and at a pace faster than Iran’s missile production.
“You have to look at the entire defensive array — Arrow, David’s Sling, THAAD and Iron Dome — as a single system,” he said. “Across all of them together, far more interceptors are being produced than the number of ballistic missiles Iran is producing at the same time. That is excellent and provides staying power.”
Radwan force has already been rebuilt
An analysis conducted in recent weeks by Tal Beeri and Dana Polak of the Alma Research and Education Center for the Study of Northern Israel suggests that despite the heavy blows Hezbollah sustained from the IDF during the 2024 war and the frequent strikes carried out by Israel since then, the Shiite terrorist group has recovered quickly.
Days before the start of the current fighting, Alma assessed that “Hezbollah’s pace of military rehabilitation exceeds the scope of Israel’s interdiction efforts.”
According to the institute’s assessment, Hezbollah’s current arsenal includes about 25,000 rockets and missiles, most of them short- and medium-range. The group is capable of launching dozens of rockets and missiles per day, while also maintaining a smaller stockpile — several hundred — of more advanced missiles.
That arsenal includes cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles, which could threaten Israel’s strategic assets in the Mediterranean, including natural gas platforms.
Hezbollah also possesses about 1,000 suicide drones, while the number of reconnaissance drones in its possession is unknown.
“Smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah continues, with an emphasis on the maritime route, alongside ongoing land smuggling through Syria,” Beeri said in a conversation with Calcalist.
Data compiled by Alma also indicate that Hezbollah maintains a fighting force estimated at more than 40,000 regular fighters, along with tens of thousands of reservists.
The group’s rapid rebuilding has also included the reestablishment of its elite Radwan force, which now numbers about 5,000 members, including roughly 3,000 combat fighters trained in anti-tank missile launches and sniper operations. According to the analysis, they have also undergone training for potential infiltration attempts into Israel by land and sea.