There is no doubt that a significant source of Israel's strategic problems is Iran.
Iran is behind the destruction in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Iran is behind the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Iran also partially funding Hamas.
Iran is behind the delegitimization of Israel campaign, including the BDS where it has been increasing its reach through individuals like Paul Larudee, an Iranian-born American political activist who is a major figure in the pro-Palestinian movement.
Although the Iranian economy is crumbling and its public is vehemently protesting against the regime, its looming cloud hanging over Israel is not blowing over.
Iran is closer than ever to becoming a nuclear power, with or without a deal. The sanctions implemented on the country are weakening, after its warming ties with China and Russia. Iranian weapons are even making their way into the war in Ukraine. These are obviously red flags for Israel.
While Israel is by no means similar to Ukraine, and is independently developing an array of counter measures against Iran and its proxies, it would not survive without American support. Joint air force exercises are not enough, Israel needs America's help to upgrade its arsenal.
Needless to say, the more successful the efforts to exhaust Iran are, the weaker the Palestinian terror organization and Hezbollah will be. Weakening the Iranian regime should be a non-negotiable top priority for Israel.
The question is - is it possible to weaken the Iranian regime?
So, I on a recent visit to Washington DC, I paid close attention, as Middle Eastern experts discussed the matter. One thing seemed clear - The more Israel acts towards orderly conflict management on the Palestinian front, the more it will gain international support for its positions on Iran.
No one is expecting the new government fabricate a peace deal with the Palestinians, but there must be some change, and the emerging coalition does not seem too promising to institute policies that the Americans will find agreeable.
Under the current circumstances there is no chance for annexation, West Bank settlements construction is on stand by, and the illegal outposts which were supposed to be dismantled long ago, are not a good look for Israel's attempts to legitimize its policies.
If the incoming government changes the status quo, and legalizes the outposts or adds new ones, the tensions with the U.S. will turn into a full blown crisis.
A significant share of the public opinion, Jewish influencers and organizations, and other friends of the Israeli state, are all rooting for us. All we have to do is avoid extreme reforms.
This is dependent on certain individuals in the coalition, which are ready to do everything in their power to promote exactly that - extreme reforms that will yield antagonization. And when their policies lead to a crisis, will Israel be able to ask the Americans for favors in the battle against Iran? Will the U.S. take us seriously?
It comes down to a choice- Legalizing settlement outposts in the West Bank, or reinforcing measures against Iran?
Washington DC is not short of Israel supporters, especially with President Joe Biden in the White House. However, like most of Israel's supporters, Biden does not support more illegal outposts in the West Bank.
First published: 23:34, 12.13.22