More than 1,000 members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have been killed so far in the combined Israeli and U.S. offensive inside Iran, according to Israeli intelligence assessments.
Officials say that since the launch of the operation, the Islamic Republic has behaved in what they describe as an irrational and “almost suicidal” manner.
IDF eliminates soldiers from the Iranian regime’s defense array
(Video: IDF)
Intelligence sources questioned the logic behind Iran’s reported attacks on seven Arab states, some of which had maintained working relations with Tehran. Oman had mediated between the United States and Iran, and Qatar’s ties with Tehran are well known. Iran also struck Cyprus, a European Union member state.
Given that pattern, Israeli intelligence officials said the mullah regime appears to have “gone off the rails” and is acting in a near self-destructive fashion.
Israeli analysts have sought to understand the strategic logic behind Tehran’s moves. According to officials, survival and preservation of the regime’s ideological framework appear to be the primary drivers. They assess that Iran is attempting to strike Israel as sharply as possible while maintaining enough military capability to endure.
Officials noted that Iran fired more missiles at the United Arab Emirates than at Israel, a move they said was not rooted in greater hostility toward the UAE but in an effort to project regional power and deterrence.
In Tehran’s view, Israeli and U.S. actions are seen as a joint blow, with blame divided between Jerusalem and Washington. Iranian leaders understand, officials said, that Israel has entered the current campaign in a highly offensive posture.
Israeli intelligence also assesses that Iran is deliberately targeting civilian population centers. Officials say Tehran believes such strikes are intended to undermine Israeli morale.
During Operation Rising Lion in June last year, Iran attempted to focus attacks on IDF bases. Now, officials say, the focus has shifted to residential areas. They argue that even on the day Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed, a strike that left nine people dead in Beit Shemesh was viewed in Tehran as a blow to Israeli morale.
Ceasefire assessment
Do Israeli officials detect an Iranian desire for a ceasefire? Intelligence sources say Iran entered the current campaign fatigued and worn down. They describe the regime as acting from a survival mindset and liken it to a wounded animal.
Israel is preparing for scenarios in which Tehran may seek to surprise by agreeing to a ceasefire under almost any terms, even though officials assess that Iran would have no intention of fully honoring such agreements.
Meanwhile, the Mossad’s official Telegram account thanked what it called the “brave women of Iran” for sending videos and images to the Israeli intelligence agency. “Every image of a strike on regime symbols brings us closer to the goal,” the post read, referring to the fall of the regime. “Keep sending. We are waiting. You deserve freedom and equality.” The materials have not yet been published.
In a separate post, Mossad shared an image of an hourglass alongside a reference to the disappearance of the ayatollahs’ regime. “Brave people of Iran, we are moving decisively toward the regime’s fall,” the message read. “The main agents of repression have been eliminated, others are fleeing in fear. Thank you for the thousands of photos and videos you have sent. Even if the internet fails, they will reach us. You are central and genuine partners in Iran’s new future.”
Intelligence officials also noted that U.S. B-1 and B-2 bombers carry munitions counted as a single strike due to their payload capacity. During the operation in June, Israel launched 3,700 munitions. Since the start of the current campaign, officials say that figure has already been surpassed.
They described the scale of destruction inside Iran as extensive and said the regime is in a very difficult position.