The images of armed Hamas terrorists during the release of hostages in Gaza, leave little doubt. After a year and five months of war, Hamas, although weakened, is in full control of the Gaza Strip and the lives of its residents, despite Israel's declared goal to destroy the terror group and prevent it from ruling over the enclave.
The future of Gaza will likely be discussed on Tuesday in the meeting of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump and may be connected to a larger deal that would include a normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia.
For now, there are four possible options for who would rule Gaza after the war, each of them complex and critical for Israel and the civilians in Gaza.
Hamas continues to rule the Strip
Despite Israel's objections, Hamas may maintain its rule over Gaza. The terror group has thousands of armed members, a police force and a security agency. It also has local municipal workers already busy clearing some of the rubble from the destruction caused by the war.
Keith Siegal released from Hamas captivity
(Reuters)
Until the cease-fire most of them avoided being affiliated with Hamas but since the truce was announced, they returned wearing their uniforms.
Maintaining Hamas rule over Gaza may make rebuilding the strip more difficult. The mammoth task would require years and a flow of foreign donations. Hamas has been discussing the establishment of a civilian management committee run by Palestinian technocrats and members of the Palestinian Authority (PA) but refused any possible dissolution of its military wing. The terror group has been attempting to copy the Hezbollah model in Lebanon where the Iranian proxy was both a political party that had a seat at the cabinet table and also a military force. This would not be acceptable for the PA.
A continued Hamas rule over Gaza poses a threat to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government because it had vowed to prevent any future that leaves Hamas the ruling power across the border. In fact, Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners have called for Israeli military control of the entire Strip and the establishment of settlements there.
Israel conquers Gaza and establishes a military rule
Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for Israel to conquer Gaza. According to the cease-fire agreement, Israeli troops who are still deployed to the Netzarim Corridor in the center of the Strip and the Philadelphi Corridor to the south will have to withdraw on day 22 of the deal from Netzarim and 20 days later from Philadelphi.
The release of all of the hostages named in the first phase of the deal relies on the pullback of troops. If Netanyahu decides not to move on to the second phase of the deal and orders the IDF to resume the war, he may also task the military with civilian matters such as the distribution of food and the collection of garbage.
This would be detrimental to Netanyahu's efforts to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia and would require the backing of the United States, under the Trump administration. Trump said he wanted the war to end and all of the hostages to be returned.
Palestinian Authority rule over Gaza
The PA is considered the only alternative to a Hamas rule in the Strip but is opposed by Israel. Netanyahu has tried to avoid any Palestinian rule there and even denied that the PA had any role in the administration of the Rafah border crossing into Egypt, despite evidence to the contrary.
The PA is weak in the West Bank and has failed in its military operations against Iran backed terror groups in Jenin and elsewhere. The PA insists they alone would rule the Strip after they were violently ousted by Hamas in 2007, but if they would be able to, remains in doubt.
Israel tried to enlist local clans to take on the responsibilities of a civilian government but failed. The defense minister Yoav Gallant also tried to divide Gaza into several dozen sectors to be individually managed, but that has failed as well.
According to a report in the New York Times, the role filled by the PA I Rafah could indicate that Netanyahu was backing down in his opposition under pressure from Trump and the Gulf states and may allow it to take on more responsibilities, perhaps in cooperation with international forces or "contractors."
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An international force
American security contractors are already operating in the Netzarim corridor, conducting security checks for vehicles heading to the northern areas of the Strip to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons and terrorists.
Thus far there are only 100 people assigned to the job and other than Egypt and Qatar no other Arab country has chosen to participate. But in Israel, there are those who are hoping and planning for an influx of foreign forces who would take control and fill governing positions.
Israeli officials quoted in the New York Times said the use of foreign forces could expand, with the support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE but they would demand guarantees that a Palestinian state would be advanced or the agreement of the PA for their involvement.