Western intelligence: Iran may strike Israel first to force wider war

Assessments point to Tehran’s desire to avenge Ali Khamenei’s death, exploit strains between Israel and the US and test Jerusalem’s reluctance to resume war; Katz warns Iran would face a ‘crushing blow’

Western intelligence agencies assess that Iran may try to draw Israel into a renewed confrontation and could even choose to strike first.
The assessment is based in part on what appears to be Jerusalem’s reluctance to return to war, as well as emerging strains in Israel-U.S. relations that Tehran may seek to exploit.
מוג'תבא חמינאי
מוג'תבא חמינאי
Western intelligence agencies assess that Iran may try to draw Israel into a renewed confrontation
Against the backdrop of preparations for a possible escalation over the weekend, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to convene the inner security cabinet on Friday.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said Thursday evening, following a security consultation with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and senior military officials, that Israel was preparing for every scenario.
“We are preparing for every possibility,” Katz said. “If Iran attacks Israel, it will suffer a crushing blow.”
Iran has been engaged in an ongoing effort to create a strategic surprise and avenge the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, part of which was exposed Thursday in an unusual Mossad announcement regarding an Iranian attempt to infiltrate terrorists into Israel to assassinate senior officials.
The November elections in the United States are viewed in Tehran as a possible constraint on an American response. From Iran’s perspective, Israeli involvement could also embarrass the U.S. administration and shape how the conflict is perceived.
“I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it,” Trump said.
טראמפ נואם בעצרת עם תומכיו ב תיכון ווילר ב ג'ורג'יה ארה"ב באירוע לציון תוכנית חשבונות החסכונות שלו לילדים Trump Accounts
טראמפ נואם בעצרת עם תומכיו ב תיכון ווילר ב ג'ורג'יה ארה"ב באירוע לציון תוכנית חשבונות החסכונות שלו לילדים Trump Accounts
US President Donald Trump told Axios that he was considering a 'massive attack, bigger than ever before' against Iran
(Photo: AP Photo/Erik S. Lesser)
Trump added that Israel “would join in two minutes if I ask them to,” but stressed that the United States did not need Israeli or allied assistance to launch the operation.
“We don’t need anybody,” he said.
Trump also said Israeli participation would carry “consequences,” apparently referring to the likelihood that Iran would retaliate by firing missiles at Israel.
According to Trump, Tehran wants negotiations but is not yet prepared to reach an agreement.
“They haven’t received enough pain yet,” he said.
Axios reported that two regional officials familiar with mediation efforts said Iran’s leadership had not accepted the latest U.S. proposal.
“We are trying, but the Iranians are not being helpful,” one of them said.
For now, the IDF has informed local authorities that Home Front Command instructions remain unchanged and that no order has been issued to open public shelters.
Should the instructions change, the military said, the public will be updated through the Home Front Command’s official platforms.
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