Reports in recent days of an emerging agreement between the United States and Iran should set off alarm bells in Jerusalem.
True, no agreement has been signed yet, and the messages coming out of Washington and Tehran are full of contradictions. But the direction is clear: The United States is seeking stability, Iran is seeking relief, and the West is once again tempted to believe it can buy temporary quiet from a regime that for decades has built a regional empire of terror.
As an Israeli, a public servant and a reserve officer, I am concerned mainly by two things. The first is Lebanon. Israel must not repeat the old mistake of quiet containment and illusory calm. Hezbollah is an extreme threat to residents of the north and Iran’s main military arm in the Middle East. Any agreement that does not allow for the genuine dismantling of the threat from southern Lebanon is an agreement that invites the next war.
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US President Donald Trump: he must ensure that this time history does not repeat itself
(Photo: Brendan Smialowski / AFP)
In recent months, civilians in the north and IDF soldiers have paid a heavy price because of drones, missiles and terror threats that were built up for years under an Iranian umbrella. Even now, Hezbollah is sending a clear message that it has no intention of voluntarily disarming. On the contrary, it seeks every day to kill the best of our sons.
Israel cannot accept a reality in which Iran receives economic relief and diplomatic oxygen that would allow Hezbollah to remain with thousands of rockets, UAVs and terror capabilities on our northern border. After October 7, we can no longer live with illusions. A threat that is not destroyed in time eventually explodes in our faces.
The second thing that concerns me is the standing of the West in general, and the United States in particular, in the face of the axis of evil. The world is now looking at Washington and asking a simple question: Is America still capable of leading the fight against global evil, or is it merely looking for a quiet way out?
China, Russia, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis examine every Western weakness under a magnifying glass. When the West projects fatigue and a desire to contain threats, the axis of evil senses it immediately. It does not end in the Middle East; it also resonates in Moscow and Beijing.
And yet, alongside all the concerns, we must exercise patience and humility. It is possible that here, too, there is a more sophisticated move underway than what currently meets the eye. Donald Trump has already proven in the past that he knows how to conduct negotiations unpredictably and use public statements to confuse his enemies. It is therefore too early to determine whether this is a dangerous strategic concession or a move designed to apply additional pressure on Iran.
History demands caution. The world has seen Western leaders try to buy quiet from extremist regimes through agreements and promises. The 1938 Munich Agreement, in which Britain and France conceded the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany, was sold as a diplomatic achievement that would prevent a world war. In practice, it became a symbol of weakness in the face of the Nazis, and the result is well known.
I want to believe Trump understands that lesson. If he wants to leave behind the legacy of a strong leader, and not of someone who allowed the axis of evil to grow stronger on his watch, he must ensure that this time history does not repeat itself.
In the Middle East, we have sadly learned firsthand that weakness does not bring peace, but, God forbid, massacre and the next war. We are living through historic moments. With determination and wisdom, we will prevail this time as well, God willing.