As the war with Iran entered its 14th day, the northern and eastern fronts have increasingly converged, with Hezbollah terrorists escalating attacks from Lebanon while Iran continues strikes toward Israel, highlighting the growing regional scope of the conflict.
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has framed the confrontation as existential for the organization, reflecting its ideological and strategic alignment with Tehran. For Hezbollah, the war is not simply a matter of external pressure from Iran but a core commitment rooted in its identity and alliance with the Shiite axis led by Tehran.
IDF intercepting Hezboolah rockets in the Haifa area
On Wednesday evening, Hezbollah escalated its attacks with one of the largest barrages in recent days, launching about 200 rockets and around 20 drones toward Israel.
The IDF acknowledged Thursday morning that northern residents were not sufficiently warned ahead of the escalation, leaving local leaders — including officials in Nahariya and the Mateh Asher Regional Council — to update the public. The episode raised concerns about public trust during an intense war that is increasingly affecting the home front.
Operationally, the IDF has intensified strikes in southern Lebanon, evacuated large areas near the border and increased defensive deployments along the frontier.
Military officials stress that Hezbollah’s capabilities were significantly reduced during the 2024 campaign known in Israel as Operation Northern Arrows, but the organization still retains meaningful military capacity. Estimates suggest Hezbollah maintains roughly 20% of the capabilities it had before that campaign, including tens of thousands of short-range rockets aimed at northern communities and precision weapons capable of reaching central Israel.
Military planners note that if Hezbollah had retained its full strength from before 2024 — including more than 100,000 rockets and missiles and the Radwan force positioned near the border — Israel likely would not have launched its current war against Iran.
At the same time, the main focus of the campaign remains Iran, limiting resources available for the northern front.
Coordination between the United States and Israel has deepened during the war. The two militaries are operating under closely coordinated plans, with shared intelligence and synchronized strike planning. Israeli officers are stationed at U.S. Central Command, while a senior American general participates in Israel’s wartime command structure.
After the opening phase of the war — which included the killing of Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei, strikes on senior Iranian commanders, the establishment of air superiority and attacks on missile infrastructure — the campaign has entered a grinding phase aimed at degrading Iran’s long-term capabilities.
IDF strikes against Basij checkpoints in Tehran
(Video: IDF)
According to IDF assessments, Iran possessed about 460 missile launchers before the war, and roughly 140 remain operational after weeks of strikes targeting launch sites and underground tunnels.
The impact of those strikes is reflected in the pace of Iranian missile fire. Iranian planners had intended to launch more than 100 missiles in their initial response and maintain heavy daily barrages. Instead, launches toward Israel now average about 15 missiles per day.
Military officials say early signs of strain are beginning to appear inside Iran’s security apparatus, including internal tensions within the Revolutionary Guard and isolated cases of desertion, though they caution that these developments remain in early stages.
In the broader strategic view inside the IDF, the campaign’s objective extends beyond daily exchanges of strikes.
Senior officers say the goal is to create military conditions that could weaken Iran’s regime over time by targeting key institutions, leadership figures and centers of power, while also preventing future military capabilities from being developed.
Officials say the nuclear issue remains central to the war. Without the current campaign, a senior officer said, Iran’s military nuclear program would have soon entered what Israel considers a “zone of immunity,” making it far harder to stop.
For decision-makers in Israel, the war is not viewed as another limited round of fighting but as a campaign against the main source of the regional threat.
“We are confronting the head of the octopus,” senior IDF officials say. “To solve the biggest strategic problem facing Israel, it has to be defeated.”
First published: 06:35, 03.13.26