The surprising agreement of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) to the extraordinary release of hostages this week is a mini-deal devised and made possible by Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Al Thani who applied pressure on all parties and especially on Hamas for the release on Thursday of Arbel Yahuod, Agam Berger and another hostage, most likely American-Israeli Keith Siegel before the planned release of others two days later.
Hamas and the PIJ want to reach the second phase in the cease-fire agreement, when Israel ends the war. That is their ultimate goal and the threat of renewed fighting is real.
Negotiations on the second phase are to begin next Tuesday and insisting on holding Yahoud would have postponed that date.
Hamas and the PIJ also wanted to relieve the presser of close to a million Gazan's hoping to return to the northern areas in the Strip, and possible unrest if that would not be made possible. They also have severely injured members of their terror groups who need medical attention and would now be able to receive it in neighboring Egypt or elsewhere in the Arab world.
Gazans return to the northern areas in the Strip
Israel was right in its handling of the crisis. We may not know the full extend of the cost. Yahoud was considered to be a soldier by the PIJ and therefore demanded 50 convicted murderers to be freed in exchange, while Israel agreed to only 30.
There is also the Trump factor and the fear of his plant to remove half of the population in Gaza, condemning them to years of exile.
While Gazans move north, the IDF is still deployed in the central and east sections of the Netzarim Corridor, along the Philadelphi Corridor and along the security perimeter along the border with Israel and could be in position to operate should the cease-fire terms be violated. The military can also force residents of Jabaliya, Beit Hanun and Beit Lahiya back to the south, so the movement of people north has not altered its options.
The blow to Israel is in the images and the Hamas narrative of victory. The returning residents of the north are encountering the massive destruction and only a few will find shelter in buildings still standing. The world media will be on hand to record the disturbing sites and will blame Israel for war crimes.
Gazans might also be hurt from explosives left behind or from Hamas devices meant for the Israeli troops, but Israel would be blamed for that too.
That requires immediate steps by the government to balance out the damage that will emerge from the Strip.
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The passage along the coast is not inspected by the American defense contractors and Hamas would be able to transport people and arms undetected.
When negotiations begin next week, on the next phase of the deal, Israel will have to address the question of Gaza's next rulers. Israelis will then know if all of the hostages would be freed.