\Seeing as Iran does not wish for further escalation, the last three weeks can be summarized with positive operational outcomes: the elimination of Iranian general Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus, thwarting an unprecedented Iranian attack and allegedly striking in response an air defense node in Isfahan, designed to protect a nuclear facility. This is just the operational aspect, and it's not enough.
In practice, a new balance of terror has emerged between Iran and Israel based on the dramatic downfall of Israel's deterrence on October 7. For years, the mullah regime refrained from directly attacking Israel, until its attack using hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.
This was the first time Tehran had deviated from its so-called "ring of fire" policy, devised by General Qasem Soleimani who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in early 2020, to train and arm hostile actors on and inside Israel's borders to allow the Islamic Republic operational freedom until obtaining a nuclear bomb.
Iran's extensive attack against Israel targeted strategic assets such as an Air Force base to damage Israel's aerial supremacy in the region. Despite Iran's failure, which restored some of Israel's credibility that was damaged by the Gaza war, Iranian boldness set Israel on a new course. Iran decided to end its shadow war with Israel and respond directly to actions against its people in Syria and Lebanon.
Apart from the implications of October 7, Iranians identified the rift between Israel and its most important ally, the United States. However, we still managed to form an international coalition and embarrass the Iranians without further escalation in coordination with the U.S., who made it clear it had no part in the hostilities.
The real test will come with the next chance to eliminate an Iranian general on Syrian soil or elsewhere. It's reasonable to assume Israel will consider this, but I doubt it will go through. This already undermines Israeli deterrence, which we must restore posthaste.
Iran's shifting approach, with its numerous consequences, led to a heated debate regarding the considerations behind Zahedi's assassination. It's clear that the man wasn't a philanthropist, and his image can be found next to the definition of "arch-terrorist." However, the decision to assassinate him in an Iranian consulate proved to be a mistake in hindsight. Israel's intelligence community didn't predict the extent of the Iranian response, which almost dragged Israel into a more complex war than the one it already faces.
Passover is a holiday where our freedom is never taken for granted, especially not this year
This miscalculation on the intelligence community's part joins other such lapses of judgment from recent memory, like the days leading up to the May 2021 Gaza war and worst of all, October 7. This time, Israel waited before responding; even though the IDF had a decisive plan to strike with force, the response was postponed. Ultimately, Israel allegedly attacked on Friday and hasn't taken responsibility so far.
According to international media reports, the surgical strike was aimed at demonstrating intelligence, operational and technological capabilities to bypass and damage Iranian air defenses, especially those near the nuclear facility in Natanz. Some news outlets claimed that the attack was carried out using fighter jets, as opposed to earlier reports claiming that the attack was carried out by drones. Additionally, Jordan's airspace was not used as part of the attack.
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Defense Minister Yoav Gallant; Iranian missile fragment found at Dead Sea
(Photo: REUTERS/Alon Ben Mordechai, Elad Malka)
Iran's attempt to downplay the operation points to its will to prevent further escalation but says nothing about Israeli deterrence. In this new reality, unlike before the war, covert assassinations on Iranian soil will no longer be contained by Tehran.
Israel is locked in a multi-front war that began in Gaza, spilled over to Lebanon and Syria, branched off to Yemen and Iraq and expanded to Iran as diplomatic relations with the United States are in tatters. Without American aid, at this stage, we would be fighting the enemy with matzo boxes.
There's no need to be complacent or spew hollow slogans about "total victory," but rather advance to victory steadily and surely. Fortunately, the U.S. Congress approved a multi-billion military aid package for Israel, but the demands and needs are much greater.
While Iran has ordered 24 SU-35 fighter jets from Russia, Israel's order of fighter jets and helicopters from the U.S. is delayed. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (who also doubles as a minister in the Defense Ministry) bicker and the latter is stonewalling a panel that would examine the defense budget while Netanyahu behaves like it's none of his business, or ours.
Israel needs to bring a swift end to the protracted war in the Gaza Strip, stop blustering with empty slogans about "total victory," reach a hostage deal and if not, execute the long-stalled ground operation in Rafah as soon as possible. After a cease-fire is reached in the south, the north will also simmer down, and only then can Israel build up its military power according to the reality, which has changed since October 7. Passover is a holiday where our liberty is never taken for granted, and especially not this year.