The hunt for Mojtaba Khamenei - though it is not being discussed publicly - is occupying a significant amount of time of both the Mossad and the CIA, Britain’s The Times reported. The newspaper has described how the two intelligence agencies are trying, both jointly and separately, to trace the whereabouts of Iran’s new supreme leader, who has not been seen in public since the assassination of his father at the end of February — an attack in which he himself was also wounded.
The condition of the younger Khamenei is unclear, since over the past six months various reports have been published about the severity of his injuries, ranging from light and moderate wounds that allow him to function as leader of the ayatollahs’ regime, to serious injuries including deformities and disfigurement that have effectively turned him into a puppet ruler in the hands of other elements in Tehran.
The moment of the announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei as the Supreme Leader of Iran
The Times noted that the “silence” surrounding Mojtaba constitutes the greatest challenge for Israel and the U.S. in their efforts to locate him. The newspaper claimed that “it appears the younger Khamenei has not picked up a phone or opened a laptop for more than 150 days. He is staying inside an underground bunker, and his face is disfigured because of the injuries he sustained in the airstrike in which his father was killed. He is afraid to leave the bunker during daylight hours out of concern that he will be identified by an American spy satellite.”
The report said that, in order to locate the elder Khamenei before his assassination, “Israel and the U.S. used every possible cyber trick, including hacking traffic cameras across Tehran to identify the vehicles used by Khamenei’s bodyguards and aides.” This enabled the American NSA and Israel’s Unit 8200 to know where Khamenei and the other senior officials were on February 28 to carry out their assassinations.
However, unlike the breaches and slip-ups that made it possible to locate the father, in the effort to locate Mojtaba, Israeli and American intelligence are forced to rely only on HUMINT — human intelligence from spies and leakers inside Iran. The Times stressed that there are those in the intelligence communities who believe Mojtaba was killed as early as February 28 or died of his wounds some time afterward, and that the Revolutionary Guards are lying about his survival.
Thus, the two intelligence agencies are trying to obtain confirmation of whether Mojtaba was killed at the start of the war, and if he survived whether he is hiding in one of the underground tunnels in Tehran or in the military bunker near the city of Qom, about 50 kilometers from the capital.
'Israeli human intelligence is clearly better, and will be more important in the hunt for Mojtaba'
The British newspaper claimed that the Mossad, “with its network of agents in Iran, most of them oppressed citizens and regime opponents,” is focusing on the question of Mojtaba’s survival and his hiding place. Rami Igra, former head of the Mossad’s captives and missing persons division, told the Times that “Mojtaba may not be using a phone, but if he is still alive at all then he has other forms of communication, such as messages on paper notes, which are passed through several ‘layers’ of couriers. If the Mossad finds Mojtaba, it will be because of the human element, but the regime in Tehran is aware of that danger.”
The newspaper noted that al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden was located in the same way, when the CIA tracked one of the couriers who delivered messages to him. “The only way to reach Mojtaba will be to recruit an agent who is in contact with him,” Igra stressed.
The Times also quoted another former senior Mossad official, Avner Avraham, who claimed that, in addition to the heavy isolation in which the younger Khamenei lives, the ayatollahs’ regime is also concealing his location through the use of doubles.
His father was located with the help of regime opponents
Whether because of fear of assassination or the severity of his alleged injuries, Mojtaba did not attend any of his father’s funeral events, which drew masses of Iranians. From time to time, a message is published in his name, but these are written messages, not recordings in his voice.
A former senior U.S. security official agreed with the assessment that locating the new supreme leader relies largely on human intelligence, but cast doubt on the CIA’s effectiveness for the mission.
“I am skeptical about U.S. HUMINT because Iran has been a no-go zone for us for 40 years,” he said. “Israeli human intelligence is clearly better, and will be more important in the hunt for Mojtaba.”
Regarding the dilemma that would arise in the political systems in the U.S. and Israel if and when Mojtaba is located, a former senior American intelligence official quipped: “I think we have eliminated enough Iranian leaders recently — unless there is very high confidence that Mojtaba will be replaced by a leader who believes in a democratic future for Iran and arrives riding on a white horse.”