As the United States and Iran conduct negotiations to end the war — whose outcome remains far from clear — former MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger has offered a bleak assessment of the situation and who he believes is emerging as the real winner.
“Iran has the upper hand,” Younger told Shashank Joshi, defense editor of The Economist. “I regret reaching that conclusion. I spent most of my career dealing with the violence and brutality of the Revolutionary Guards. I did not shed a tear over the death of Ali Khamenei, but the reality is that the United States underestimated the task and, about two weeks ago, lost the initiative to Iran.”
Former MI6 chief Alex Younger explains how Iranians outsmarted Trump
(Video: The Economist)
Younger said Tehran has been fighting the current war effectively.
“The Iranian regime has shown greater resilience than anyone would have expected, in my view," he explained. "They made some good decisions as early as last June regarding the dispersal of their military capabilities. That gave them significant resilience against a powerful air campaign. They launched what is technically called ‘horizontal escalation,’ firing rockets at anyone within range. At the time I thought it was madness, but in fact it is a very effective way of imposing a direct cost on the United States, and it has worked reasonably well."
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US President Donald Trump and Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khameini
(Photos: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images North America/AFP)
He added that "Iran understood the significance of energy warfare and threatened to close the strait. It turned the conflict into a global one. The Iranians have played their hand quite well, despite being dealt weak cards.”
Younger also criticized President Donald Trump’s rhetoric and its impact on the war.
“Trump made it clear that Iran is in an existential war and that he wants to see it with its back to the wall. The United States, by contrast, is in a war of choice. I think that has given the Iranians more staying power than the United States — and certainly more than its partners. I think that gives them the dominant position,” he concluded.
First published: 09:09, 03.25.26