Israel had for a long time sought to eliminate Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the number one Hamas leader in Gaza who was targeted on Friday evening by IDF forces. Political authorization for the strike was granted to the army about a week and a half earlier. Since then, intelligence surveillance of him had been continuous and the strike was carried out after an operational opportunity emerged, assessed as having a high probability of success.
Haddad was seen as opposing the Trump administration’s “Council of Peace” plan for the disarmament of Hamas. Israeli officials believe even the Americans will not mourn his death and that it will not change Washington’s position, which supports continued implementation of the plan despite Hamas refusing to allow a technocratic committee into Gaza and the entry of a Palestinian policing force. Israel likely informed the Americans in advance of the intention to target him.
A senior Israeli official said that Nikolay Mladenov, representative of the “Council of Peace for Gaza,” was furious at Hamas’s obstruction under Haddad’s leadership on core issues, suggesting the Bulgarian diplomat would also be satisfied with the development. In a statement approving the attempted assassination, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Haddad refused to implement the agreement led by U.S. President Trump for the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip.
In Israel, officials assess that his killing will not significantly affect negotiations with Hamas. The question now is how Hamas will respond and whether it will harden its positions or shift its approach. A security source assessed that the strike could actually push Hamas toward agreeing to the disarmament framework. In any case, if the assassination attempt succeeded as Israel believes, it would mark a major achievement for the IDF and the Shin Bet, which managed to locate him and reach Hamas’s number one in Gaza.
Some commanders consider exile
Military and security commentator Ron Ben-Yishai notes that Haddad’s killing will not end Hamas rule in Gaza, but it severely damages the morale of the organization’s leadership in the Strip and its ability to lead and make decisions on key issues such as disarmament.
As noted, Israel is also demanding that senior field commanders and top officials of the organization leave Gaza. Haddad’s elimination advances that goal, as it demonstrates to Hamas leadership in Gaza and to anyone involved in the October 7 attacks that Israeli intelligence and the Air Force can reach them even when they are mostly hiding in tunnels. This, it is argued, makes exile a preferable option to preserve their lives. At least some are now considering it.
Without its senior military and civilian leadership in Gaza, Hamas in the Strip, cut off from external assistance, would struggle to function, and this could also influence the movement’s political leadership based in Doha, Qatar.
Haddad was aligned with the hardline camp, arguing that the Americans would not allow Israel to eliminate Hamas, reportedly based on assurances Hamas received from mediators. He was therefore among those opposing disarmament of most types of weapons.
Haddad also likely believed he could delay an Israeli move to take control of western Gaza until U.S. President Donald Trump intervened to halt the IDF, under pressure from mediators, as he did in Lebanon. His killing significantly weakens the radical faction within Hamas leadership and may influence negotiations led by the “Council of Peace” and Egypt with the group in a direction more favorable to Israel.
Leadership vote expected Sunday
Haddad was almost the last remaining senior military commander in Hamas in Gaza from the October 7 generation. The only known surviving figure is Mohammed Odeh, former head of Hamas intelligence on October 7. His photo was first released by the IDF in September last year. Odeh reportedly assumed command of Hamas’s northern Gaza brigade after the killing of Ahmed Randor in November 2023.
Throughout the war, Haddad moved between multiple hideouts and reportedly held hostages, including surveillance soldiers from Nahal Oz, using them as human shields.
The attempted strike came as Hamas’s political wing was finalizing preparations to announce a new leader of the organization. The main contenders are Khalil al-Hayya and Khaled Mashal. Al-Hayya was elected Hamas leader in Gaza and Mashal as leader abroad, and both are considered frontrunners for the position of head of the political bureau. According to a report in the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, a decision is expected on Sunday, with al-Hayya seen as having the higher chances.