The U.S. estimates that Iran may carry out a revenge attack against American forces stationed in the Middle East as early as Tuesday or the day after, Reuters reported Monday afternoon, citing two American officials who noted that Washington still hopes to reach a “diplomatic solution” that would prevent Tehran from executing its promise of revenge for the bombing of its nuclear sites—a response that President Donald Trump has vowed would be met with much stronger U.S. strikes.
In light of the calls for revenge, the U.S., as well as Britain and China, issued warnings Monday afternoon to their citizens remaining in Qatar, advising them to remain in place until further notice, "out of an abundance of caution." The U.S. embassy in Qatar sent an email to American citizens with the guidance, without further details, and the British issued a similar warning shortly afterward. The Chinese embassy in Qatar called on its citizens in the country to "increase precautions."
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Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei
(Photos: CameraObscura82/Shutterstock, Smolkov Vladislav/Shutterstock, Mohammed Yassin/Reuters, Iranian Leader's Press Office, M Ngan/AFP)
The Qatari Foreign Ministry stressed that the security situation in the country remains stable, and that the authorities are closely monitoring the situation and are prepared to take steps to maintain the security of residents in the Gulf principality. Qatar is home to the Al-Udeid air base - the largest American military base in the Middle East. The U.S. has already recently evacuated military aircraft from the base, fearing that they would be an easy target in an Iranian missile or drone attack.
The Reuters report comes just hours after The New York Times reported Sunday night that U.S. intelligence and security agencies have identified “signs” that pro‑Iranian militias in Iraq are also preparing to strike U.S. bases there—and perhaps in Syria.
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US military base Al Udeid in Qatar - before and after evacuation
(Photo: Handout / PLANET LABS / AFP)
One U.S. official said that the Baghdad government is currently working to persuade the militias, which haven’t yet joined the conflict, to refrain from carrying out such an attack. Sunday night, at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, U.S. representative Dorothy Shea warned that “any Iranian attack, direct or indirect, against Americans or American bases will be met with devastating retaliation.”
Within Iran itself, threats of revenge against the U.S. continue nonstop. Early Sunday morning, Washington joined Israel in the attack on the Islamic Republic in its Operation Midnight Hammer, bombing the Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan—and declared that it had “destroyed” the Iranian nuclear program, although the extent of the damage is still being assessed.
Another threat came Monday afternoon from Iran’s new military chief, Abdolrahim Mousavi—whose predecessor, Mohammad Bagheri, was eliminated by Israel in the opening strike of Operation Rising Lion. Mousavi promised a “decisive response” to what he called “the American mistake.” He added that Iran would continue to strike Israel at the same time. “Netanyahu’s punishment will continue, and we will act against the Americans according to their strikes,” he said.
A senior Iranian official, speaking to CNN, also promised that Tehran would take direct revenge on the U.S. He said that the Iranian regime wants the U.S. “to pay directly for the war, instead of standing behind Israel and continuing its project with no cost.” In light of a demonstration last night in Tehran following the American strike, during which protesters demanded revenge, the anonymous official claimed: “The morale is high and the overwhelming demand from the Iranian people to strike Israel is unprecedented.” He argued that these calls, allegedly coming from the Iranian public, to attack Israel are “an element that strengthens Iran’s war plans.”
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The official added that calls now being heard calling for a “temporary” cease‑fire are “a deception designed to assess Iran’s ability to continue the war.” In comments that seem part of Iranian propaganda, he claimed the war could last up to two years and declared: “Iran is ready for that.”
In contrast, Western experts believe that Iran also has many reasons to avoid a long war of attrition—especially if the U.S. is drawn in by Iranian retaliation—because then Tehran would face the combined military force of the U.S. and Israel. Among other things, so far both the IDF and the U.S. have avoided hitting Iran’s oil and energy infrastructure—a strike that would collapse the Iranian economy and further destabilize the regime, which is already deeply afraid of its own population uprising.
Any decision to strike the U.S. would require a green light from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It is possible—as Iran did after the U.S. killed Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020—that it will choose a more restrained response, one that gives it “a way out” of the war. In retaliation for Soleimani’s killing, Iran launched rockets at American bases in Iraq, but Trump restrained from responding after reportedly being given advance warning, and no U.S. soldier was killed, though dozens suffered concussions).
These remarks from the Iranian source come against the backdrop of Monday morning’s Wall Street Journal report claiming that Israel passed Iran, through Arab intermediaries, a message indicating that it is striving to end the war “as soon as possible.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured Sunday night that Israel will not be drawn into a war of attrition, but stressed that fighting will not end before the “operational goals” are completed—which means eliminating the threats posed by Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.