October 9, 2026. Remember that date. Just three years and two days after Hamas invaded Israeli territory in the deadliest and most horrific terror attack carried out against a Western country, committing terrible crimes against civilians and humanity.
Three years and two days ago, Israel went to war for its very survival. This was not merely a war against Hamas. It was a war orchestrated by a sophisticated octopus whose head sits in Tehran and whose arms extend into Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Judea and Samaria. Its purpose was to destroy Israel, establish Iranian regional hegemony, and ultimately threaten the West itself.
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Then Donald Trump was elected president, and he appeared to understand the threat
(Photo: AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
Israel fought with extraordinary courage, creativity, and determination. It astonished its enemies and its friends alike. It did so while losing thousands of soldiers and more than two thousand civilians. Those losses would have been far greater had Israel not protected its citizens through innovative, life-saving technologies, in contrast to its enemies, who use their own civilians as human shields.
Meanwhile, 251 Israelis were taken hostage. Some returned in coffins. Some returned in pieces. Some were buried in stages. Children and women were murdered in captivity in horrific and barbaric ways. In some cases, victims could be identified only through tiny fragments of remaining tissue, such as an eyebrow.
The world stood by. Initial sympathy quickly gave way to a global dance of interests. Pressure on Israel mounted, reaching the point of an arms embargo during the Biden administration.
Then Donald Trump was elected president, and he appeared to understand the threat. He understood that it is about the West. He understood that Tehran’s strength lies not in military superiority but in its ability to extract concessions through negotiations. He promised the Iranian people: "Help is on its way."
For a time, it seemed he intended to keep that promise. Then, suddenly, Trump reversed course.
Alongside the shock and disappointment, the world is asking: what happened to Trump? Why is he rushing toward an agreement while Iran humiliates American negotiators, denies progress, and hardens its demands? Why proceed even when CIA Director John Ratcliffe warns that Iran has no intention of honoring any agreement it signs? Never before has a superpower appeared willing to sign what amounts to a surrender agreement with a country that was on the verge of defeat.
Has Trump abandoned the principles he championed for years? In my view, the answer lies in a single date: October 9, 2026. That is the day the Nobel Peace Prize Committee will announce its annual winner. And Trump wants it.
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Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has presented the Nobel Peace Prize medal to US President Donald Trump
(Photo: Daniel Torok/The White House via Getty Images)
He wants it as personal recognition and as a political asset ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. He wants it enough, I believe, to place American and Western interests behind his own pursuit of glory.
Perhaps he imagines that after winning the midterms, collecting the Nobel Prize in Oslo, and pocketing the more than one million dollars that comes with it, he can reverse course and return to confronting Iran.
Because he knows Iran will not cease its aggression. It will intensify it. It has no intention of abandoning its nuclear ambitions. Any pause today merely creates a stronger threat tomorrow.
Is there a greater sin than the pursuit of personal glory at the expense of a nation’s future?
Trump could have secured a place in history as the leader who helped save and reshape the Christian Western world. Instead, he appears willing to settle for a certificate from the Norwegians.
The Iranians understand this. They are squeezing Trump for concessions and demanding cash compensation for any agreement. According to reports in Arab media, the enormous sums promised to Tehran would allow it to rebuild quickly through cooperation with Russia, China, and perhaps North Korea, backed by the Qatar–Turkey axis.
While Trump focuses on Oslo, Iran prepares for war. Facing this ideological alliance, the West may find itself with a United States unable to win ground wars and a Europe that is militarily weakened.
Trump’s gamble could cost the West its global dominance.
Perhaps he believes Israel will again be forced to fight and pay the price in soldiers, civilians, and economic damage. Convenient.
But Israel has learned from Oslo. It will not allow it to happen again.
The prophet Jeremiah wrote: “Israel is not forsaken.”
Netanyahu, unlike Trump, has been paying the price of this war for three years. He understands that Trump’s promises depend on Donald’s interests. He understands this is a point of no return with Iran. And he chooses history over personal interest.
Donald Trump should understand that Nobel Prizes can still be awarded for real achievements.
But if he does not change course now, he risks becoming a black stain on Western history.
And for Israel, relief and deliverance will come from another source.
For Israel is not forsaken.
- The author holds a Ph.D. in Management, is the author of The State Is Currently Unavailable: How to Make Public Services Work for Us Again, and chairs the Forum for the Galilee.