One of the factors that led to October 7 was a policy of “no policy.” What to do about Hamas rule in Gaza? Do nothing. Contain it. Allow it to grow stronger. Fall into the illusion that prosperity and livelihoods are the best path to calm and deterrence. What to do about the Palestinian issue? Do nothing. Contain it. An attack here, a smaller attack there. Another neighborhood here, another outpost there. Build a bi-national state from the sea to the Jordan, believe the world will get used to it, and sink into the illusion that the problem will disappear.
The October 7 massacre was supposed to awaken the government of failure. Perhaps a policy of “doing nothing” does not work so well? Perhaps, just perhaps, when you do nothing, you end up taking a devastating blow. But Netanyahu, true to form, learned nothing and forgot nothing. Just as before October 7, also after October 7 Netanyahu has adamantly refused to discuss “the day after.” On one of the rare occasions when he deigned to declare a policy, at a cabinet meeting at the end of March, he said: “We will ensure overall security in the Gaza Strip and enable the implementation of Trump’s voluntary migration plan. That is the plan. We are ready to discuss it at any time.”
It was already clear that Trump’s transfer plan was nothing more than a slip of the tongue. But when Netanyahu has nothing, even a slip of the tongue becomes policy. And what came of it? Bluster that only harmed Israel.
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his office in Jerusalem
(Photo: Amos Ben Gershon, GPO)
After the March plan ended its course like a sad joke from a leader with no idea what he is talking about, the “five-point plan” emerged in August. This time it was not a slip or a whim, but a plan published in an official government statement: disarming Hamas; returning all hostages, living and dead; demilitarizing the Strip; Israeli security control over Gaza; and an alternative civilian administration that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.
In practice, however, it was a plan designed to perpetuate an endless war. Here and there a war of attrition, here and there fighting at slightly higher intensity. The main thing was that there would be war.
The Trump administration had enough. Netanyahu arrived in the United States in September only to undergo a series of humiliations unprecedented for an Israeli leader. Trump forced on him the “20-point plan,” which included the establishment of a Palestinian state, the complete opposite of what Netanyahu wanted. And as a finale came the gravest humiliation of all: Netanyahu was forced to apologize to the Qatari regime for the failed bombing in Doha. Qatar, one of Israel’s chief adversaries alongside Iran, received an apology. That is how one treats a country that Trump holds dear. Against the backdrop of “Qatargate,” it is possible Netanyahu’s advisers were even satisfied.
Sunday begins another Netanyahu visit to the United States. Given that during the September visit hostages were released and a ceasefire was achieved, of course under American dictates, it is possible that this time as well there will be limited achievements that the public wants but Netanyahu does not. But this will not be simple. Israel desperately needs agreement and cooperation with the United States to deal with the strengthening of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. To achieve these crucial goals, however, a political vision is required, one that includes building a coalition with Saudi Arabia and other states. Only then will the likelihood of meaningful cooperation from the administration be much higher.
Ben-Dror YeminiPhoto: Avigail UziBut what is the political vision of Netanyahu’s government ahead of this visit? Hollow rhetoric from the nominal defense minister, Israel Katz, parroting the policy of the real defense minister, Bezalel Smotrich, about Jewish settlement in Gaza. The folly is reaching new heights.
Behind the scenes, according to sources in Washington, Jared Kushner is working intensively to try to realize what seems an almost unattainable goal: the disarmament of Hamas. One can only hope. But one thing is clear: Netanyahu is heading into an important mission of once again presenting the growing threats, from Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah alike. Yet with bluster focused only on war and outposts in Gaza, and without a serious political vision, failure is foreseeable.
One must wish Netanyahu success. It is just unfortunate that he remains committed to a framework of failure that is already well known in advance.