For a moment, it seemed that at last a Churchill had emerged. A Western leader willing to look the enemy of the free world — of Muslims, of all those under its control or influence — in the eye without blinking. A leader unafraid even of hostile public opinion at home. A leader waging the most justified war since the fight against the Nazis.
We have had enough Chamberlains, Donald Trump himself said, mocking Europe’s weak leaders as he did what appeared to be the right thing. Contrary to claims, it was not Israel that persuaded Trump to take on the mission of defeating the head of the axis of evil in the Middle East. It was a decision made by the U.S. president himself. In almost every sense, he is not in Israel’s pocket — and in almost every sense, Israel is in his. Even on the issue of a ceasefire, Israel will do exactly what Trump dictates.
It may be a deception. It may be that Trump needs a few more days to prepare. It may be that he heeded Iranian threats to strike energy facilities across the Gulf and was forced to find a way to ease their concerns about devastation. But there is a fear that once again it will prove true: Iran never wins wars, but it never loses negotiations. It sought to shift the arena — and perhaps it has succeeded. So even if Trump did not intend to retreat, the moment he entered a negotiation track, Iran found itself exactly where it wanted to be.
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President Donald Trump announced that he is in negotiations with Iran
(Photo: Mark Schiefelbein/AP)
Based on Trump’s statements on Monday, it appears he intends to achieve all the war’s objectives: no more nuclear capability, transfer of enriched uranium into American hands, limits on the development and production of ballistic missiles, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Sounds ideal? Not so fast. We have seen this movie before.
After the 12-day war, both Netanyahu and Trump issued a series of statements declaring total victory. “Iran’s nuclear facilities have been destroyed — and anyone who says otherwise is spreading fake news,” Trump declared in an official White House statement on June 25, 2025. “In the 12 days of Operation Rising Lion we achieved a historic victory that will stand for generations. We removed two immediate existential threats: annihilation by nuclear bombs and annihilation by 20,000 ballistic missiles… We destroyed Iran’s missile production industry,” Netanyahu said in a special address on June 24, 2025.
These were false statements. After all, at the start of the current round, both Trump and Netanyahu said we are going out to destroy the nuclear facilities, the missile stockpiles and the missile production industry. In other words, we have returned to square one. For more than three weeks, the United States and Israel have been bombing Iran’s missile production industry — and it is reasonable to suspect it has not yet been destroyed.
For more than three weeks, the war has continued, requiring prolonged bombardment to achieve its goals. One might forgive the bombastic statements made last June. But to retreat now? To leave the regime of evil intact? In effect, Trump and Netanyahu are telling us that, even if the old leadership has been eliminated and the damage is severe, the objectives have not been achieved. The regime remains.
Worse still, according to a comprehensive and detailed report by MEMRI (the Middle East Media Research Institute), since October 2025 the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles has actually accelerated following the blows the regime suffered in the 12-day war.
The fact that Iran has held out for nearly a month, launching missiles across the Middle East — including two to distances approaching 4,000 kilometers — and choking the global energy economy by closing the Strait of Hormuz, indicates that its capabilities are far greater than intelligence assessments suggested. This means the task is far from complete. A ceasefire, in this context, reflects fatigue and a loss of patience on the part of the United States, and extraordinary resilience on the part of the Iranian regime.
In any case, even an agreement that includes everything Trump promised on Monday would not be the final word. First, because another name for the current regime is deception. Second, because it would abandon 80% to 90% of the Iranian people themselves. They took to the streets and were killed in large numbers in pursuit of change. Trump promised to help, but such an agreement, if implemented, would leave them behind. Just days ago, three young protesters were executed, including the well-known boxer Salah Mohammadi.
Despite everything, it is now necessary to wait. The real test will be in the implementation of the conditions Trump outlined. Will the uranium indeed be transferred to the United States? Will ties with proxy forces be severed? Will the regime truly commit to halting missile production? And even if the answer is yes — at least on paper — when it comes to the Iranian regime, the very fact that it remains in power constitutes a victory. All other violations will come later.