Behind the scenes, an increasing number of collaborations are taking place between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel, while Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is also beginning to show curiosity. The friction between the Gulf emirates and Riyadh, alongside the strong ties between Jerusalem and Abu Dhabi, is creating an opportunity for the Saudi door to reopen.
When examining the relationship between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the ruler of the seven Gulf emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed, the age factor cannot be ignored. The former is just 40 and has effectively ruled for nine years, while his elderly father remains alive but largely distant and disengaged, still formally holding the royal title. By contrast, bin Zayed, 65, has ruled the emirates for only four years and for the past two years has maintained an open and particularly close relationship with Israel.
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Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and Mohammed bin Zayed, President of UAE
(Photo: Nathan Howard/AP, AP)
It is also worth noting that the Emirati ruler has 18 brothers from different mothers, four of whom hold key positions: Sheikh Abdullah serves as foreign minister, Sheikh Tahnoun is national security adviser, Sheikh Mansour is deputy ruler of Dubai and Sheikh Hazza acts as deputy in managing the Emirate of Abu Dhabi.
The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is shaped by the starkly different personalities of their leaders. The Saudi leader is extroverted, while the Emirati leader guards his privacy. The Saudi pursues massive projects, while the Emirati operates behind closed doors. One example is the purchase of a painting attributed to the Italian artist Salvator Mundi by bin Salman seven years ago. He announced his intention to present it as a special gift to the Emirati ruler. The price he paid, “only” $450 million, was not an issue. In the end, however, another dispute erupted and the valuable artwork was stored away on bin Salman’s private yacht. Likewise, the Neom project to build a massive Saudi city on the Red Sea, to which Saudi Arabia quietly sent Israeli visitors, is faltering. There is little interest, no investors and no meaningful American backing.
The most recent public dispute between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has centered on the UAE’s ties with Israel. According to a report by Axios, Israel transferred an Iron Dome defense system to the UAE to help intercept waves of missiles and drones, while Saudi Arabia continues to absorb attacks. To date, the emirates have sustained the largest number of launches from Iran: 2,919 missiles and 563 drones.
Absorbing blows and counting the damage
Residents of the UAE lack fortified shelters or protective infrastructure. They absorb the strikes, tally the damage, the dead and the wounded, grit their teeth and refrain from responding. Abu Dhabi attempted to establish a joint force against Tehran, but the Saudis made clear they would not retaliate for the attacks. Iran, seeking to further heighten tensions, announced it would target “only” American sites in the Gulf. In practice, strikes hit civilian targets in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait and especially the UAE, due to both proximity and its ties with Israel.
The UAE’s withdrawal from the OPEC can be seen as an initial act of retaliation against Iran, one that could contribute to Tehran’s economic collapse. At the same time, the move delivers a sharp blow to bin Salman. Once UAE leaves OPEC, it can produce and export oil without limits or obligations. It is reasonable to assume the UAE will soon double production to four or even five million barrels per day. The key question is the shipping route and whether Saudi Arabia will cooperate.
The ties between the UAE and Israel are far stronger than they appear, involving consultations and cooperation with both Israel and the United States. On Sunday, Crown Prince bin Salman set aside his pride and called the palace in Abu Dhabi, bringing an end to a period of estrangement. Riyadh declared full support for the emirates. On Monday, the UAE was hit by 16 ballistic missiles and four drones, and Saudi Arabia understands its turn may come soon. A significant blow from Iran could set both the UAE and Saudi Arabia back decades, wiping out infrastructure and economic gains and returning them to desert conditions.
Already now, as usual, Saudi Arabia is actively involved behind the scenes in Lebanon against Iran, aiming to forge a unified position in negotiations with Israel. Even if Lebanon’s president avoids a White House meeting to sidestep shaking Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hand, Saudi Arabia, like the UAE, is pressing Lebanese leadership to act against Hezbollah.
The alliance between Abu Dhabi and Israel may be nameless and faceless, but those who need to know, know.
Bin Salman is signaling growing curiosity and beginning to hint at rapprochement with Israel. It is no coincidence that Ron Dermer was involved. As tensions with Iran evolve into both security and economic threats, the Saudi door toward Israel is beginning to reopen. The normalization process may have stalled or frozen, but there are increasing signs of cooperation.