Israel’s government has only one true ally left in the world — one leader who understands its moves in Gaza. While he has not openly endorsed an occupation of the Strip, he has expressed sympathy: Donald Trump. In an interview with Channel 12’s Barak Ravid, Trump said he doubted Hamas would release hostages now and reminded listeners of October 7.
The coordination between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump is undeniable and proved effective during the conflict with Iran. But even that relationship has limits — limits only Trump will decide, in his own time and way. One morning the decision will simply come, sudden and decisive. If the Gaza operation turns into a disaster, it’s doubtful the White House will back it, a reality Netanyahu seems unwilling to acknowledge.
“He’s obsessed,” one cabinet minister said of Netanyahu. “There’s no talking to him. Everything else in the world passes him by. He sees this as just another wave.”
Meanwhile, Israel’s diplomatic collapse deepens. Palestinians are enjoying perhaps their most successful summer yet on the international stage. In Lebanon, efforts are underway to disarm Hezbollah — a potential, though far from certain, historic shift. The Lebanese government wants to strip the group of its weapons. At such a moment, even a brief pause in fiery declarations about occupying Gaza City would seem wise, avoiding more rhetorical ammunition for the “axis of resistance.” But as one source put it, “Bibi is in overdrive, focused on this as if it were Iran.”
The political freefall continues. On Tuesday, Australia pledged to recognize a Palestinian state. Italy’s defense minister — from a country resisting the recognition trend — accused Israel’s government of losing “logic and humanity” in its plans. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund announced it would divest from Israel. And for what? The cabinet has not even formally approved an occupation plan, a fact that has infuriated Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, while Netanyahu scrambles to fix it.
Gaza City and its environs are home to roughly a million people, concentrated in dense multi-story urban areas. It is doubtful they could all be evacuated with warning. It is even more doubtful hostages could be kept alive during a major military operation there. Evacuating civilians for reasons unrelated to their safety in combat would be considered a war crime — something the military advocate general has already warned the IDF about, in light of Smotrich’s ambitions.
IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stressed in a recent assessment the need to protect the hostages and build a plan for the next phase of the war while maintaining “professionalism and principles” — a clear signal that the military will not serve as a contractor for reckless political ideas. But within the defense establishment there is a growing sense of confusion and loss of direction.
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Orders may soon be given that sharply endanger hostages — many of whom are already dying in tunnels — while causing severe civilian casualties in the heart of Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. Israel has long been swept along by events, and apart from Trump, no one in the international community is listening anymore. The isolation is deepening, and its costs will be generational.
Domestically, the picture is no better. Netanyahu has failed — and judging by his recent press conference, is not even trying — to rally a weary, sometimes despairing public behind what may be his final push. Knowing there’s little chance of success, he focuses solely on his right-wing base.
Nadav EyalPhoto: Avigail UziNow his camp tries to frame Gaza City as the final Rafah, the real Philadelphi Corridor, the ultimate historic victory. The defense establishment hopes that before any assault on Gaza City, something akin to the 1982 Beirut deal — which saw the PLO exiled from Lebanon — might be reached. But that precedent had no hostages, no Hamas.
Netanyahu’s hope may still be for a smaller breakthrough deal. As he hinted in response to Ron Dermer’s remarks in the cabinet, he would not truly refuse it. For now, Hamas benefits from the predicament into which Israel has boxed itself — a trap dug by its own government, in which it now digs deeper. And the dirt is covering everyone.