Americans will vote Tuesday in the midterm elections for the House of Representatives and Senate. Israel is watching with concern, particularly as officials try to understand what will happen after the elections if the Democratic Party wins a majority, as polls suggest. Will a president weakened at the ballot box rush to resume fighting in Iran or seek an agreement? And how much power will a new — and potentially more hostile — Congress have to influence policies traditionally directed by the White House?
According to current projections, Democrats are overwhelming favorites to win control of the House of Representatives. Polls and forecasts give them about a 95% chance of securing a majority, with an average projection of 236 seats, well above the 218 needed. In the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 53 seats to the Democrats' 47, the race is much closer. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51, since Republican Vice President JD Vance would cast the deciding vote in the event of a tie.
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How would Trump respond if Democrats win control of both chambers? The U.S. president with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
(Photo: Maayan Toaf/GPO)
It is important to note that, as in Israel's most recent elections, polls failed to predict Trump's sweeping victory in the last presidential election and have consistently underestimated his actual support, which ultimately becomes evident at the ballot box. There are three possible outcomes for the U.S. midterm elections, each of which would affect Israel differently.
Democrats win both chambers
A scenario in which Democrats secure majorities in both the House and Senate would amount to a resounding vote of no confidence in Trump's leadership, two years after he swept to victory in the United States.
Such an outcome could be driven in part by the war in Iran, which is widely perceived as an unsuccessful and unnecessary conflict that has contributed to the rising cost of living. According to a Pew Research Center survey, 65% of Americans are dissatisfied with how the war is being conducted.
If Democrats take control of both chambers, they will be able to shape the political agenda, delay or freeze funding, including aid to Israel, block presidential appointments such as ambassadors and Cabinet secretaries, initiate impeachment proceedings and, perhaps most importantly, summon senior administration officials to congressional hearings.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is already under scrutiny over his leadership of the war in Iran and statements that could be interpreted as calls for war crimes.
A divided Congress
Under this scenario, Democrats would win control of the House but fail to secure a majority in the Senate. Although they would be unable to block appointments or advance legislation without the support of the Republican-controlled Senate, they could still use their House majority to summon officials to hearings and initiate impeachment proceedings, primarily as a means of exerting political pressure.
The identities of the Democratic senators elected would also matter. Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan and Troy Jackson of Maine are considered particularly hostile to Israel and U.S. assistance to the country. If elected, they could have a negative impact on Israel even without a Democratic majority in the Senate.
Hostile toward Israel. Abdul El-Sayed
(Photo: REUTERS/Rebecca Cook)
Republicans retain control of Congress
This would be Trump's ideal outcome, although all current projections suggest it is highly unlikely.
Maintaining Republican majorities in both chambers would strengthen Trump's political standing and reduce the likelihood that he would resume the war in Iran, as a Republican victory would give him a political boost and ease pressure on his administration. It would also allow him to continue providing broad support for Israel through 2028.
In any event, the deeper question for Israel is not simply how much power Democrats will wield, but the direction in which their voter base is moving.
According to an April Pew Research Center survey, 80% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters hold an unfavorable view of Israel, up from 69% a year earlier and 53% in 2022.
New voices are also emerging within the party's leadership. Katherine Clark, the second-ranking Democrat in the House, said the United States should not give a "blank check" to a country that fails to uphold American laws and values. Congressional Progressive Caucus Chairman Greg Casar argued that the United States should not continue funding Israel's military while Americans face economic hardship.
Looming over all these scenarios is the security memorandum of understanding between Israel and the United States. The current agreement runs through 2028, and its successor will be negotiated under either the current Congress or the next one.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously said he wants to begin reducing Israel's dependence on American aid during the final two years of Trump's presidency. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has written that the new agreement would "end aid" and instead be based on trade.
William Galston of the Brookings Institution predicted that if Netanyahu remains in office, a "political warfare" could erupt between him and the Democrats, potentially bringing direct U.S. assistance to Israel to a complete halt. A new Israeli government, by contrast, might receive a brief "breathing space."
Others in Washington, however, argue that the focus on Netanyahu is less significant than it appears and that pressure from the Democratic base will continue even if Israel's leadership changes.
Kobby Barda, an expert on U.S. affairs, emphasizes that an American president who loses control of either chamber of Congress faces significant difficulties advancing domestic legislation and will therefore tend to focus on foreign policy.
According to Barda, Trump will invest in a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia as a central part of his legacy and try to impose what Barda calls "Abraham Accords 2.0" on Israel's next prime minister, whoever is elected.
The composition of Israel's next government will also have a major impact on U.S.-Israel relations.
If Netanyahu remains in office, Democrats will prepare for confrontation. But if a government led by Gadi Eisenkot takes power, Barda believes both sides will be willing to reset relations.
And if Trump retains Republican control of both chambers, Barda believes it may still be possible to salvage the next U.S.-Israel security memorandum of understanding.