Following the killing of Yahya Sinwar and the dismantling of Hamas’ interim leadership, the terror group is preparing to select a new head of its overall political bureau, with Khalil al-Hayya and Khaled Mashal emerging as the leading candidates.
Beyond the formal title, the winner is expected to assume Hamas’ de facto leadership, a development that could significantly affect regional power dynamics and the future of Gaza after the war.
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Leading contenders for Hamas leadership: al-Hayya and Mashal
(Photo: Jehad Alshrafi/ AP, Osama Faisal/ AP, Khalil Hamra/AP)
Sources close to Hamas’ leadership told the Saudi newspaper ‘Asharq’ that a principled decision has been made to soon appoint a new head of the overall political bureau and to dissolve the leadership council established after Sinwar was killed in October 2024. According to the sources, Hamas’ General Shura Council, a body of about 50 members representing the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, prison representatives and officials abroad, is already preparing for the vote, which is expected to take place within days or weeks.
Internal deliberations within Hamas point to two prominent candidates. Al-Hayya, head of Hamas’ political bureau in Gaza, is identified with continuing the line of military confrontation until a full Israeli withdrawal from the Strip. Mashal, the former head of the political bureau, is seen as leading a more political and pragmatic approach, including the pursuit of diplomatic arrangements, distancing from Iran’s axis and closer ties with so-called moderate Arab states.
Al-Hayya during a meeting with Khamenei (file footage)
Hamas officials estimate that al-Hayya holds a significant advantage, in part due to broad support outside Gaza, particularly from Hamas’ leadership in the West Bank led by Zaher Jabarin. Still, prevailing assessments suggest that even if a new leader is elected, the terror group will struggle to change its strategic direction as long as the war has not fully ended, Israeli forces have not withdrawn and no new reality has emerged on the ground. The situation remains largely static due to the stalled transition to phase two of the agreement.
Hamas’ general elections, which are meant to be held once every four years, were scheduled for early 2025 but were postponed because of the war in Gaza. According to ‘Asharq’, there is no intention to hold comprehensive elections before a full ceasefire is in place. In the last elections, held in March 2021, Ismail Haniyeh was elected head of the political bureau. After he was killed in July 2024, Sinwar was chosen, only to be killed himself three months later.
An interim leadership was then formed under Shura Council chairman Mohammed Darwish, with al-Hayya, Mashal, Jabarin and Nizar Awadallah among its members. Hamas sources said the decision to dissolve the council and select a permanent leader was based on two main factors: the ceasefire in Gaza, which ended the organization’s emergency mode, and sharp internal disputes over strategic issues, primarily the future of Hamas’ rule in Gaza and the group’s regional alliances.
Bilal Rayyan, a Gaza-based human rights activist, said the identity of the next head of the political bureau will be decided around one central question: Gaza. According to him, the next leadership will have to balance what he described as the legacy of resistance and assassinated leaders with the urgent need to address the humanitarian disaster, rebuild the Strip and preserve internal unity.
“Gaza will remain the code word and the decisive factor,” he wrote.