The psychological torment that unfolded this week surrounding the anticipated release of the three Israeli hostages once again demonstrated how much Israel has neglected the strategic management of its existence and future. Hamas on one side, Trump on the other—and Israel in the middle, swaying back and forth without a compass, at the mercy of players who have painted its reality with crude brushstrokes.
The maestro, Benjamin Netanyahu, a master of the brush himself, specializing in shaping public perception, found himself this week, once again, dragged between diplomatic paralysis, a wild espionage scandal, and the creation of constitutional and anti-democratic chaos.
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Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mahmoud Abbas, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
(Photo: Evan Vucci /AP. Haim Suldberg / Flash 90, Mohammad Abu Samra / AP, Martin Sylvest / Ritzau Scanpix / AFP)
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Prime MInister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump
(Photo: Andrew Caballero Reynolds / AFP)
The prime minister returned from Washington intoxicated by his victory, and as usual—succumbed to his well-known hubris and complacency. Enamored with headlines that framed his visit to the White House as a clear political triumph, Netanyahu checked off the issue most important to him: the image of a supreme politician around whom reality somehow always aligns.
And while this may be true at times, Mr. Lucky Strike cannot take pride in anything planned—let alone in a coherent strategy. His embarrassing slip of the tongue about the possibility of a Palestinian state in Saudi territory only underscored how deeply he is entrenched in small-scale, survivalist politics rather than crafting a clear and secure path for Israel’s future.
The shockwave created by Trump’s statement about expelling Gazans from the Strip further highlighted the extent of the void on the Israeli side. Neither the political right nor left currently holds a logical and clear roadmap to address the problem of Gaza the day after the war. And that is precisely what made Trump’s statements so impactful: Netanyahu’s resounding emptiness.
Interestingly, in response to this vacuum, more and more civil political initiatives are emerging, led by concerned Israelis seeking to propose rational frameworks for Israel and the Middle East. The Coalition for Regional Security, for example (full disclosure: I am one of its founders), offers a political plan centered on advancing normalization with Saudi Arabia and expanding the Abraham Accords into a security framework (Magen Avraham) to ensure the safety of the region’s moderate nations.
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But as always, Netanyahu prioritizes appeasing [far-right coalition partner Bezalel] Smotrich and scoring points with his political base over seizing any opportunity for diplomatic progress that could extricate Israel from its endless war cycle and put it on a path toward regional cooperation. BS instead of MBS. That’s the only reasonable explanation for the absurd proposal to establish a Palestinian state in Saudi territory—an idea that rattled regional governments and infuriated every serious partner Israel could and should work with.
The coming weeks will be dramatic: U.S. President Donald Trump is firing his heaviest rounds right from the opening battle—and to his credit, he does so indiscriminately and without hesitation. He wants to end the Gaza conflict, bring the hostages home, resolve the war in Ukraine, and broker regional peace in the Middle East. Trump's method involves a lot of threats and grandiose statements. So far, it’s working—at least partially. It forces world leaders out of their comfort zones.
The problem with this approach, however, is that, like anything else, people quickly become desensitized to threats. Psychologically, if Trump’s influence tactics fail to alter reality in at least one arena, the shift from game-changer to toothless clown could be brutal and unforgiving. Unfortunately, given the lack of alternative strategies, Israel will pay the price.
Attila Somfalvi is a strategic and political consultant, founder of The Coalition for Regional Security