The dramatic ceasefire and hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas was finalized just hours before Friday’s Nobel Peace Prize announcement in Oslo. But even as the ink dries, experts say President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the world’s most prestigious peace prize are slim.
Trump, who has mounted an unprecedented lobbying campaign for the honor, struck a pessimistic tone when asked if he expects to win. He repeated his disputed claim of having “ended seven wars” since returning to the White House, and quipped that even if he ended an eighth, “maybe they’ll still find a reason not to give me the prize.”
Trump on Nobel Peace Prize: “Maybe they won’t give it to me”
Norwegian committee is seen as ideologically opposed
The five members of the Nobel committee are appointed by Norway’s parliament and are widely viewed as politically distant from Trump. Committee chair Jørgen Friedens, who also heads a Norwegian free-speech organization, has previously criticized the U.S. president for undermining that very right. Observers believe the committee is unlikely to reward Trump in a way that could appear as capitulating to his pressure.
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Trump’s Nobel push: He called a Norwegian minister
(Photo: Shutterstock, Alex Brandon/ AP)
A spokesperson for the committee told AFP that its final deliberation was held Monday, before the Israel-Hamas deal was reached and that no further meetings would take place before Friday’s 12 p.m. (Israel time) announcement. “The final bricks were laid on Monday,” said spokesperson Erik Asheim, “but we never disclose when the decision is actually made.”
A pressure campaign and global endorsements
In recent months, Trump has lobbied aggressively for the prize, even calling Norwegian Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg to discuss it, alongside talks on tariffs against Norway. He has repeatedly argued, including in his UN General Assembly address last month, that he “deserves” the award for bringing peace through strength.
Supporters claim Trump earned it during his first term for brokering the Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. This year, as the Gaza negotiations progressed, global leaders from Pakistan to Cambodia expressed support for his candidacy, as did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
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Even the hostages’ families backed Trump: “Others talked, Trump acted”
(Photo: Motti Kimchi)
Even the Hostage Families Forum joined in this week, stating: “No leader or organization has contributed more to peace than President Trump. While others spoke of peace, he delivered it.”
However, the deadline for nominations passed on January 31, meaning such endorsements carry no weight this year. Still, Trump did receive a valid nomination last December from Rep. Claudia Tenney, a New York Republican, and from Israeli-born law professor Anat Beck-Alon, who cited his efforts to free hostages and combat antisemitism.
Experts: Trump “doesn’t project peace”
Despite the endorsements, analysts say Trump’s combative style runs counter to the values celebrated by the Nobel Committee. “There’s a vast difference between halting fighting in the short term and addressing the root causes of conflict,” said Theo Zenou, a historian at the Henry Jackson Society. He added that Trump’s dismissal of climate change as “the greatest hoax in history” conflicts with the committee’s priorities. “I can’t see them giving the prize to someone who denies climate change,” Zenou said. “Past laureates were bridge builders, advocates of international cooperation and reconciliation—terms not often associated with Donald Trump.”
Netanyahu told Trump in July: I recommended you for the Nobel
(Video: Reuters)
Trump has long ridiculed the committee’s 2009 decision to honor then-President Barack Obama, his political nemesis, less than a year into his first term. “If my name were Obama, I’d have a Nobel in ten seconds,” Trump said last October.
His isolationist and militaristic policies, including pulling the U.S. from several UN bodies, ordering strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, and renaming the Pentagon the “Department of War,” are also likely to hurt his chances. “His rhetoric does not suggest a peaceful worldview,” said Nina Greger of Oslo’s Peace Research Institute. Swedish scholar Peter Wallensteen agreed, telling AFP: “No, it won’t be Trump this year. Maybe next year—once the dust settles around his initiatives, including Gaza.”
Betting markets favor Sudanese aid groups
According to betting platforms, Trump ranks fourth with just 7% of wagers. The frontrunner is Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, with 33%, followed by Doctors Without Borders and Russian dissident leader Yulia Navalnaya, each at around 10%.
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Yulia Navalnaya leads betting odds, but could The Hague court win?
(Photo: Jean-Francois Badias/ AP)
Other contenders include the International Court of Justice (6%), the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (4%), and climate activist Greta Thunberg at just 1%.
Sky News speculated that the committee might honor the United Nations or one of its institutions this year, marking the organization’s 80th anniversary. Media watchdogs such as the Committee to Protect Journalists and Reporters Without Borders are also seen as possible recipients, amid record journalist deaths in global conflicts—especially in Gaza.
A century-old tradition and strict secrecy
The Nobel Peace Prize, first awarded in 1901 under the will of dynamite inventor Alfred Nobel, is the only Nobel category decided by a Norwegian rather than Swedish committee. Nobel stipulated that Norway’s lack of military tradition made it better suited to judge matters of peace.
The prize includes 11 million Swedish kronor (about $1.19 million) and will be presented in Oslo City Hall on December 10, the anniversary of Nobel’s death.
Past laureates include anti-nuclear campaigners from Japan, Iranian women’s rights activist Narges Mohammadi, and pro-democracy advocates from Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. The last national leader to win was Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2019—who later plunged his nation into civil war.
Four U.S. presidents have won the prize: Theodore Roosevelt (1906), Woodrow Wilson (1919), Jimmy Carter (2002, post-presidency), and Barack Obama (2009).
The Nobel statutes define eligible laureates as those who have “done the most or best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.” While the prize has occasionally gone unawarded—19 times since 1901—the committee has ruled that this year, there will indeed be a winner.
This year’s 338 nominees, including 224 individuals and 94 organizations, will remain secret for 50 years under committee rules.