For anyone seeking to deeply understand what the IDF is planning for Gaza in the coming months, it’s best to ignore the grating voices emanating from the cabinet and the political system — and instead study the details of Operation Gideon’s Chariots. This military campaign, if carried out in full, could endanger the hostages still held by Hamas. However, the plan has been designed to minimize that risk as much as possible.
What is already being presented in the media as Operation Gideon’s Chariots is a combined military, civil and diplomatic campaign aimed at achieving two goals simultaneously: first, to pressure Hamas and Islamic Jihad into softening their positions and agreeing to a significant hostage deal under terms acceptable to the Israeli government; and second, to inflict a severe blow on Hamas’ military capabilities and governmental infrastructure — enabling, on the “day after,” the establishment of a new order in the Gaza Strip.
Under such a prospective arrangement, the terrorist organization would be effectively disarmed, and its military and civilian leadership in Gaza would be unable to function or control the relatively small terror groups likely to remain scattered throughout the Strip, possibly attempting to wage localized guerrilla warfare against IDF forces.
Three main phases — the first has already begun
Operation Gideon’s Chariots is planned to unfold in three primary phases. The first — already underway — involves preparatory measures. The second consists of intense preparatory fire from the air and ground, combined with the movement of the majority of Gaza’s civilian population to secure shelters in the Rafah area. The third phase is a ground maneuver aimed at gradually taking control of parts of the Strip and preparing for a prolonged military presence.
The preparatory phase is already in motion and is expected to last at least another 10 days, until U.S. President Donald Trump concludes his visit to the Middle East on May 16, possibly beyond. During this time, preparations are being made in the Rafah area for the prolonged stay of nearly two million Gazans, who are expected to arrive there during the second phase — the "population transfer" stage.
The area designated for this movement is in the southwestern part of the Strip, between the Morag Corridor and the Philadelphi Route. It is not a contiguous zone but consists of large areas around Rafah that are currently depopulated, with most structures flattened. The IDF believes that most of the tunnels in the area are no longer usable by Hamas.
The creation of a “sterile” Rafah zone was achieved through a recent operation that severed connections between the Khan Younis and central refugee camps (Deir al-Balah and al-Mawasi) and Rafah — primarily by exposing and demolishing the tunnels linking these areas. That operation was, in fact, preparation for the broader campaign now being planned.
At this stage, Israel, in coordination with an American company, will establish logistical centers where this company will distribute humanitarian aid, including food, medicine, water, and sanitation, to Gaza’s civilians. The aid will arrive via the Kerem Shalom crossing, undergo inspection, and be escorted by the IDF along the shortest route to each of the secure zones housing civilians. In each such area, a logistics center will be set up, staffed by personnel from the American company, which currently also manages the screening of Gazan civilians crossing to and from the northern part of the Strip.
The IDF, in coordination with the Shin Bet, will establish inspection points — “drain points” — on the main routes leading to the Rafah safe zones. These drain points play a crucial role: preventing Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters from fleeing future combat zones and using the civilian population as human shields. These checkpoints are intended to conduct strict filtering using advanced technological systems, aimed at severing contact between Hamas leaders and the civilian population, and thereby preventing the recruitment of new fighters.
The logistic centers currently under construction in the zones designated for civilian relocation are also meant to deny Hamas the ability to loot aid and sell it to fund its operations.
During the preparatory phase, a limited reserve call-up will also take place. Contrary to some reports, only reserve unit commanders have been called up so far; the soldiers have received emergency call-up orders and are expected to report in the coming days. These reserve units will likely not enter Gaza, but rather replace regular units stationed along the Syrian and Lebanese borders, which will then be redeployed to the Gaza area in preparation for the start of the gradual ground maneuver.
The 10 days until the end of Trump’s regional visit are also intended to lay the diplomatic groundwork needed to complete the operation's objectives — and possibly to avoid the ground maneuver altogether. Israel is placing great hopes in Trump’s trip and his meetings, especially with Qatar. Israel hopes Trump will pressure the Qataris to resume active mediation and apply substantial pressure on Hamas’s political leadership to soften its stance on the hostages — and to agree to a deal in which Hamas is disarmed and its leadership dismantled.
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Since the interrogation of Netanyahu's office, Qatar has taken a confrontational stance against Israel
(Photo: Reuters/Janos Kummer/Getty ImagesSaudi Press Agency)
In recent months, since the launch of the Qatargate investigation into individuals in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, Qatar has taken a more adversarial stance toward Israel. Not only did it cease its mediation efforts in the hostage negotiations, leaving Egypt as the sole mediator, but, according to reports, it actively hindered the process.
The visit by Mossad Director David Barnea to Qatar about two weeks ago slightly eased tensions. The Qataris, whose dignity and interests were harmed by voices from Jerusalem, have not yet fully re-engaged in mediation. However, Israel hopes — following discussions with the Americans — that Trump will persuade Qatar’s emir and prime minister to rejoin the effort, possibly offering a “dowry”: the renewal of humanitarian aid to Gaza’s civilians in exchange for renewed, intensified mediation.
Over the two-week preparation period, Israel intends to give Hamas leaders in Gaza, particularly Yahya Sinwar, a chance to reconsider their stance on the hostages. They may ultimately agree to the “Witkoff Plan,” under which some hostages (between five and 11) would be released in two stages, in exchange for ceasefires lasting a month or more. These would preclude the need for the next phases of Gideon’s Chariots.
Intense fire and civilian movement: Phase two
In the second phase, the IDF will initiate intense preparatory fire, while simultaneously calling on Gazan civilians across the Strip — including in areas where IDF troops have yet to maneuver — to evacuate to secure zones prepared for them. The drain points will be activated at this stage to strictly filter those moving south to Rafah, aiming to prevent, as much as possible, the movement of armed terrorists into the safe zones. This will allow the IDF to combat terrorists remaining in the Strip without risking civilian casualties.
The population movement has two strategic objectives: first, to pressure Hamas to stop fighting; and second, to push many Gazans closer to the border crossings with Egypt and Israel, and the coast, encouraging voluntary emigration and thereby realizing Trump’s broader vision for Gaza. At the same time, Israel is currently engaged in intensive negotiations with several countries around the world willing to accept Gazans who wish to emigrate — countries deemed attractive enough to entice such a move.
Distribution of humanitarian aid in Gaza will begin during this phase under the new system, with the IDF securing the aid convoys. The aid volume will be far smaller than before the recent complete halt, but Gazans in the new open-air shelters in Rafah will receive all necessities. Trucks will arrive at fortified logistical centers established and secured by the IDF. Aid will be distributed from controlled access points, with monitored routes to residential areas, preventing Hamas from looting food crates. During this phase, the evacuation of sick and wounded individuals from the Strip will also continue.
Combat and prolonged presence: Phase three
In the third phase, the IDF will launch a ground maneuver in the evacuated zones, now populated mainly by terrorists from various terror groups. Subterranean operations will follow the model tested in Rafah and on the outskirts of Khan Younis during the recent Southern Command operation.
The objective: sever above ground and underground links between Hamas and Islamic Jihad battalions and brigades — or what remains of them — and deal with each group separately using forces familiar with the terrain, thus reducing risks from traps and explosives.
The IDF will act systematically, flattening buildings that could serve as combat shelters and exposing and destroying tunnels that might enable surprise guerrilla attacks. This phase aims to prevent Hamas commanders from relocating forces or reaching safe zones, and will also block the group from controlling its fighters or recruiting new ones, given the absence of humanitarian aid to fund such efforts and the removal of young civilians who could be recruited.
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The gradual takeover of territory, severed above and below ground from other areas, will take several months. Forces remaining in the field will block Hamas from resurfacing, systematically eroding terrorist capabilities and the infrastructure, including tunnels and public buildings like schools, used in the fighting.
Hamas’ 'exit options' and the remaining pressure levers
The operational plan includes “exit options” for Hamas at the end of, or during, each phase. In the preparatory phase, Israeli officials believe Hamas might agree to a phased hostage release under the “Witkoff Plan” — to prevent the population transfer stage, which Hamas appears to fear greatly. The second exit opportunity is before or during the onset of the ground maneuver. The third is sometime toward the end of Gideon’s Chariots, before Israel orders a full reserve mobilization and the potential full conquest of the Gaza Strip.
The current plan was prepared by the IDF General Staff, with the Operations Directorate leading the effort. Together with the Shin Bet, COGAT, Military Intelligence, other military branches, and in coordination with the Americans, three operational plans were developed. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir favored the Gideon’s Chariots plan, but all three, in which hostage safety and restrained reserve use were central, were presented to Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. After their approval, the plans were shown to the cabinet, with Netanyahu and Katz backing Gideon’s Chariots.
Extensive thought, effort and resources were invested in this plan, which employs five pressure levers proven, based on 18 months of fighting, to be highly effective against Hamas’ leadership. Some levers had never been used before, simply because the IDF hadn’t realized their full impact until now.
The first lever is the occupation and control of territory, severing remaining Hamas units from one another and systematically destroying combat infrastructure. This includes expanding buffer zones along the Strip’s edges, enhancing the security of Gaza-adjacent Israeli communities by physically separating them from Gaza.
The second lever, particularly stressful for Hamas, is the civilian movement through drain points into areas unconnected to Hamas’s infrastructure. This not only prevents recruitment but also strips Hamas of its ability to govern civilians, except through fear, raids, and looting.
The third lever — equally troubling for Hamas — is the prevention of aid theft. This denies the group a vital source of funding through the resale of looted humanitarian supplies.
First published: 19:02, 05.06.25