U.S. President Donald Trump was shocked by the images of the three Israeli hostages released by Hamas last Saturday. By Sunday, his team had already informed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s staff of his intention to escalate his threats against the terror group.
In Jerusalem, officials asked him to hold back, and it worked — for exactly one day. Anyone who followed the live coverage of Trump’s flight to the Super Bowl saw that Gaza is one of two issues occupying the leader of the free world more than anything else, alongside his drastic cuts to government "waste."
As the saying goes, the enemy of good is sometimes the "very good" — so what can we say about the "excellent" or the "perfect"? For 16 months, Israelis have longed for an American administration that would let the IDF win, and now it's happening — but at the most sensitive possible moment.
Israel has already paid nearly the full price but received only half of what it was promised. If Netanyahu wants to resume the war, his obstacle isn't a hostile administration but rather public opinion, which largely supports another stage of hostage releases.
A divided government faces tough choices
As often happens in the current era, even the most dramatic developments end up convincing people of what they already believed. The deal’s supporters in the government — still the majority — are now convinced that Trump will give Israel the green light to wipe out Gaza.
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So now, finally, the agonizing dilemma that has plagued Israelis since the war began — eliminating Hamas or rescuing the hostages — appears resolved: bring the hostages home as quickly as possible, and then launch the Gaza operation to the cheers of White House support. The deal’s opponents think the opposite: they believe this is the last opportunity to completely halt humanitarian aid, tighten the siege and prepare the border crossings for mass emigration. In other words, if you've been granted a miracle like the oil flask in the Hanukkah story, don’t waste it frying an omelet.
That’s why Trump’s surprising statement — surprising, at least to most cabinet members — is causing problems. The takeaway is this: Israel won't blow up the first stage of the deal if it ensures the hostages' release. But it won't move forward to a second stage that leaves Hamas in power.
March is shaping up to be a decisive month for the government. Early in the month, the first stage of the hostage deal will conclude, coinciding with the swearing-in of the new IDF chief of staff, Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir. Next comes the draft law, and then the budget, which must pass by the end of the month. In the United States, they call it "March Madness"; in ancient Rome, it was the Ides of March.
Right-wing frustration over Gaza policy
Trump's Gaza statements are also creating discomfort for Netanyahu. In Washington, the president does whatever he wants: he upends global norms with a single executive order, renames the Gulf of Mexico, slashes billions from the federal budget.
In Israel, the prime minister issues directives and instructions, pleads and demands — but even then changing the rules of engagement along the Gaza perimeter requires two cabinet meetings and multiple legal opinions, and even then nothing really changes. Right-wing frustration over this inertia is now aimed at the bureaucracy, but missing the opportunity presented by a supportive U.S. administration could fuel support for new political movements that promise action rather than words. Netanyahu has always hated being challenged from the right, but this time it's not former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett or former National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir — it's Donald Trump.
On Gaza, this right-wing frustration is on the verge of boiling over. Many blame the humanitarian aid, imposed on Israel by the previous administration for Hamas' resilience despite the military's achievements. According to estimates, the 600 trucks entering Gaza daily have restocked Hamas' supplies for months to come — four to six months, depending on who you ask. Even if the humanitarian aid is eventually cut off—something many believe is exactly Trump's plan — Hamas will likely have enough reserves to hold out.
Kushner's legacy
That’s why Israel sees it as critically important — both strategically and politically — that voluntary emigration from Gaza begins soon and becomes visible on the ground. Not everyone will leave, of course, but even if 200,000 people — those with foreign passports and their families — depart, it could generate significant shifts in the region.
In 1948, several hundred thousand Arabs fled Mandatory Palestine, while many others remained. Yet, the trauma of that exodus, known as the Nakba, continues to haunt the Arab world well into the 21st century.
Amit SegalTo this day, historians argue over whether the Nakba was deliberate or a byproduct of war. Israel's first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, never said. Now, the person many see as the architect of a "second Nakba" is also Jewish — Jared Kushner, Trump’s former senior advisor and his Jewish son-in-law. Kushner no longer holds an official title, but his influence in the White House remains strong. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. envoy sent to discuss Gaza, is Kushner’s man. The Gaza evacuation plan is his brainchild. He proposed it, Trump embraced it, and the "Jabaliya Riviera" was born.