In recent years, the Gulf states have invested enormous effort and resources to present themselves as peaceful and luxurious destinations for tourism and business, detached from the volatile region in which they are located. But this week that illusion was shattered by barrages of missiles and drones.
The Iranian attack targeted American bases, oil company infrastructure and Dubai International Airport. But it has already produced massive fireballs at luxury hotels, echoes of explosions in shopping centers, strikes on data centers and infrastructure facilities, and anxiety even around the Burj Khalifa — the tallest skyscraper in the world and a symbol of these states.
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Smoke rises from Dubai international Airport after Iranian attack
(Photo: AFP - SOURCE: UGC / UNKNOWN)
Suddenly, they — and the entire world — understood just how fragile the situation there is: that at any moment a serious strike could hit critical targets, and that there is a dramatic gap between the region’s progress, innovation and ambition and the lack of protection, fortification and emergency preparedness guidelines.
From the perspective of Israel’s defense industry, this gap represents another major opportunity. The sector has been booming in recent years anyway — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked a global arms race, and then came the war in Israel — and now a new market has opened: hungry, wealthy and capable of paying a great deal.
As Iran launches missiles at the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in an unprecedented attack of unusual scale, those countries are realizing they must acquire defensive technologies. And Israel’s defense system is the best in the world. It has been for years, and after the most recent rounds of fighting our knowledge, experience and continuous improvements have made it even stronger.
“We have something to sell, and this week we received very wealthy countries that really need to buy,” a former senior official in Israel’s defense establishment told Calcalist, estimating that he himself may travel to the Gulf after the war to offer expertise, defense systems and other capabilities.
Bahrain's BAPCO oil facilities on fire after Iranian drone hits them
“These are not only the defense systems themselves that can be sold — the Arrow, David’s Sling and others — but also deterrence capabilities, early-warning systems for launches, the development of civilian defense doctrines, shelters and protected spaces. There is plenty to work with there.”
Bought a little — they will buy much more
This will not begin the day after the war. It has already begun.
According to foreign reports, in recent years Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Rafael — Israel’s main developers and manufacturers of defense systems — have already sold defense systems to the United Arab Emirates.
IAI sold batteries and interceptor missiles of the Barak MX air-defense system, designed to intercept drones, missiles, rockets and aircraft at ranges of up to 150 kilometers, in a deal worth nearly $600 million.
Rafael sold the Spyder air-defense system, based on its Python-5 and Derby air-to-air missiles.
The UAE also possesses SkyKnight, a defense system developed by Abu Dhabi’s Edge Group together with Germany’s Rheinmetall, and both it and Qatar operate American Patriot and THAAD systems.
Despite all this, just two and a half days after the war began reports had already emerged that the UAE and Qatar feared a rapid depletion of their interceptor missile stockpiles.
“It is clear that the Gulf states, which are not accustomed to war, are coping reasonably well with the situation thanks to preparations they made in recent years in the field of air defense. But it certainly isn’t sufficient in light of the scale of attacks we saw this week,” says Lior Segal, CEO of ThirdEye Systems, which develops and manufactures drone and UAV detection and disruption systems.
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A THAAD missile battery
(Photo: AFP / HANDOUT / DVIDS / US ARMY / Staff Sergeant Cory D. Payne)
Segal himself was part of those preparations. Last month he completed a deal to sell 30% of the company’s shares to Edge for about $10 million.
In fact, if not for October 7, the Gulf states might already be better protected today.
“Already at the beginning of 2023 some of these countries approached me about protection projects. Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 and the war that followed caused those talks to fade, but I estimate that now — after they have understood the severity of the threat and the depth of the gaps — we will return to those discussions, and even more intensively," a senior expert in fortification who served for decades in Israel’s Home Front Command and is well acquainted with emergency situations and large-scale destruction says.
“The recognition and need for protection already existed several years ago, when the Houthis began firing missiles toward the UAE. But the events of the past few days have dramatically accelerated that awareness and demand, and it’s going to be a bonanza in every sense of the word.”
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Arrow missile defense system
(Photo: Spokesperson and Public Relations Division at the Ministry of Defense)
There were other deals that October 7 did not disrupt.
Since the Abraham Accords of 2020 and the normalization of relations with Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco and Sudan, Israeli defense exports to those countries have been rising steadily.
In 2023, about 3% of Israeli defense exports went to those states. A year later the share climbed to 12%, reaching a record $14.8 billion in sales. Industry estimates suggest the 2025 summary will show further growth.
Naturally, the numbers are somewhat vague, since most of the deals remain classified.
At the end of last year, Elbit Systems reported that it would provide a foreign country with a “strategic solution” worth about $2.3 billion over the coming decade. Calcalist revealed that the deal involves a futuristic air-defense system about which Israeli officials refuse to say anything publicly.
Following that report, the French intelligence website Intelligence Online reported that the client whose identity Elbit and Israel’s defense establishment tried very hard to conceal was the United Arab Emirates.
Segal of ThirdEye believes that even the heightened secrecy surrounding these deals will ease after the war.
“Until now these countries maintained limited commercial cooperation with Israel and kept it low profile, so as not to anger Iran too much,” he says.
“But after the theoretical threat has become reality, their demand will surge, and the regional changes following the war will simplify doing business.
“In the new reality now taking shape, these countries will understand that the die has been cast — they have no one and nothing left to hide from because they are already being targeted and attacked.
“With U.S. security backing, the environment will be much more convenient and will allow a more dynamic market to develop.
“That will replace the need for complex deals carried out quietly through foreign companies. It is always preferable to conduct business in a straightforward way, with as few sensitivities and bureaucratic obstacles as possible, and perhaps following these changes that will become possible.
“There is definitely a chance for positive developments after the war, as much as one can estimate and hope at this stage.”
Wait until the war ends
Some interviewees mentioned another angle in which the attacks on the Gulf states are “not bad” for Israel — fewer missiles are being fired at it.
“The hundreds of missiles and drones Iran is launching at those countries, in a wild and unexpected display, are missiles and drones it is not launching at Israel,” the same former defense official says.
“Its missile arsenal is now divided among many targets across the Middle East, and the ‘portions’ we received at the beginning of the week were smaller than those we received in previous confrontations with Iran. That reduces the load on our defense systems here in Israel and allows higher interception rates.”
On the other hand, in the Gulf they do not quite know how to respond to this sudden and chaotic show of force.
An Israeli who has lived in Abu Dhabi for six years, on a public mission, says the first echoes of explosions on Saturday instantly shattered the calm routine he had grown used to. He immediately entered the alert mode familiar to Israelis — but discovered there was no protected space nearby. He hurried down to the parking garage of his residential building, to level –4.
And what did those who are not Israelis and are not accustomed to such solutions do?
“People didn’t really know what to do. But there also wasn’t a great deal of panic. What is familiar and routine for us Israelis is very new for them.”
And yes, he too sees the opportunity.
“We will need to share with them the knowledge, experience and capabilities we have. We will wait until the war ends, organize delegations of companies and organizations that can provide emergency solutions — from construction to protecting hospitals and critical infrastructure needed to ensure the continuous functioning of the economy.”
“Waiting until the war ends is key in my view,” he adds. “Rushing in while missiles are still falling could look too greedy — and in the Gulf they already know how to identify, even without radar, those who smell money and want to cash in.”
Another figure in the field who knows the Gulf players well also warns about potential Israeli greed.
“There are those who think they can demand outrageous prices in deals with them, assuming everyone there is naive and doesn’t know market prices,” he says.
“Anyone planning to get rich quickly from the new vulnerabilities of these countries would do well to do their homework. Israeli businesspeople who think all the knowledge, wisdom and intelligence are in their hands must understand they are not the only ones in the world — and the Gulf states are always open to hearing good offers from elsewhere.”
First published: 09:19, 03.09.26