Israel’s past three years at the Eurovision Song Contest have been highly successful, with all three songs finishing in the top five. What did they have in common? All were performed by women: Noa Kirel placed third with Unicorn in 2023, Eden Golan finished fifth with Hurricane in 2024 and last year, Yuval Raphael came in second with New Day Will Rise.
Noam Bettan will try to maintain that high bar this year, but history shows that, as a male solo singer, his chances of success are lower. The greatest achievement by an Israeli male singer at Eurovision was in 1978, when Izhar Cohen won first place with A-Ba-Ni-Bi, accompanied by the Alphabeta group.
Four years later, Avi Toledano also recorded a major achievement, finishing second with Hora. Cohen, Israel’s Eurovision king, returned to the contest in 1985. He did not win that time, but placed high — fifth with Ole, Ole.
Since then, however, the achievements of male solo singers have been far more modest. Boaz Ma'uda placed ninth in 2008 with Ke’ilu Kan, and in 2015 Nadav Guedj finished in the same spot with Golden Boy. Apart from them, no male solo singer has made it into the top 10.
The most recent male solo singers Israel sent were unsuccessful. Hovi Star placed 14th in 2016, Imri Ziv came 23rd a year later, Kobi Marimi finished in the same position at the 2019 Eurovision in Israel and Michael Ben David failed to qualify for the final in 2022.
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Izhar Cohen won first place with A-Ba-Ni-Bi, accompanied by the Alphabeta group in 1978
(Photo: Yaron Brener)
So how can Israeli men succeed at Eurovision? When they perform in duos or bands. The band Eden, for example, placed fifth at the 1999 Eurovision in Israel with Yom Huledet (Happy Birthday). Kaveret, performing under the name Poogy, finished seventh in 1974 with Natati La Khayay. Nathan Datner and Avi Kushnir, performing as Lazy Bums, came eighth with Shir Habatlanim (The Bums' Song) in 1987. Combinations of men and women can also work — just ask Duo Datz, Orna and Moshe Datz, who reached third place with Kan in 1991.
Women, by contrast, had major successes even before the past three years. Three of Israel’s four Eurovision winners were women. Gali Atari & Milk and Honey won the 1979 Eurovision in Jerusalem with Hallelujah, Dana International took first place with Diva in 1998, and the most recent winner is Netta Barzilai with Toy in 2018.
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Yuval Rafael waves the Israeli flag at Eurovision 2025 held in Switzerland
(Photo: Gil Nechushtan)
Other women also placed very high. Ofra Haza moved audiences with her performance of Chai in Germany, earning second place in 1983. Shiri Maimon placed fourth with Hasheket Shenish’ar in 2005, Yardena Arazi finished seventh with Ben Adam in 1988, after placing sixth in 1976 with Chocolate, Menta, Mastik and Liora came eighth with Amen in 1995.
What do the betting sites say?
What are Noam Bettan’s chances of outperforming Israel’s recent male singers and placing as high as the women? For now, the betting tables are flattering, placing Israel’s song, Michelle, in sixth place, though with only a 4% chance of winning. Betting agencies give odds ranging from 15-to-1 to 21-to-1, meaning that a $10 bet on Bettan to win would return between $150 and $210.
Leading the betting table by a wide margin is Finland, with a 36% chance of winning. Greece is second with 13%, followed by Denmark with 11%. France and Australia are also ahead of Israel on betting sites.
As for Israel’s chances of reaching the final, betting sites give it a 95% chance of appearing in Saturday night’s final in Vienna. A $10 bet on Israel qualifying would return about $10.10.
So while the chances of winning on paper are not high, when it comes to a respectable top-five finish, betting sites give Israel 47% and 74% to finish in the top 10.
Unsurprisingly, given the political situation and the war, Israel has stood out in recent years mainly in the public vote, while receiving the cold shoulder from juries, which gave its songs relatively low scores. Indeed, betting sites give Israel only a 1% chance of finishing first in the jury vote. In fact, based on jury voting alone, the estimate is that Israel would finish 17th. Good thing the public also has a say.
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The public loved Eden Golan in 2024, but the judges not so much
(Photo: Corinne Cumming, courtesy of EBU)
Betting sites estimate that Israel has the highest chance of receiving the most public votes, at 27%. Finland has a 19% chance of being the public favorite, while Greece has 17%.
Australia is Israel’s mirror image. According to betting agencies, it has the highest chance of finishing first with the juries, but only a 1% chance of ranking first in the public vote.
And who will finish last? Here, the odds may still shift after the semifinals, once the final list of contestants becomes clear. For now, the estimate is that host country Austria will finish last, while Britain, which automatically qualified for the final, could also find itself dead last.
I believe Bettan will qualify for the final but will not repeat the achievements of the three previous female singers. I expect him to place between seventh and 12th — not because of the quality of the song, but because of the current sentiment toward Israel and Jews.