On the final day of 2025, the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, appeared on Al Jazeera and detonated a diplomatic dirty bomb. In a frantic attempt to derail the historic mutual recognition agreement between Israel and Somaliland, Mohamud explicitly alleged that the breakaway republic had agreed to two secret conditions: hosting an Israeli military base and, more explosively, resettling Palestinians displaced from Gaza.
This claim, aired to millions across the Arab and Muslim world, is a textbook example of modern information warfare. It is a "Big Lie"—a fabrication so audacious that it forces the world to debate it, thereby shifting the narrative from Somaliland’s democratic success to a manufactured humanitarian conspiracy.
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Berbera Port, Somaliland: Claims that Israel plans to resettle Gazans in the republic
(Photo: Abdulkadir Hirabe / Shutterstock)
The anatomy of a disinformation campaign
To understand the lethality of Mohamud’s claim, one must look at the ingredients he mixed to create it. He has taken the very real strategic convergence between Israel and Somaliland—which legitimately involves security cooperation and potential naval access—and poisoned it with the radioactive isotope of the "Gaza Transfer" theory.
This narrative did not emerge in a vacuum. It weaponizes recent, unrelated events to create a plausible-sounding horror story. Propagandists have seized upon President Trump’s hyperbolic comments about turning Gaza into a "Riviera" and grafted them onto unverified reports from early 2025 regarding "voluntary migration" talks with African nations like Congo and Chad.
The timing of the interview—aired on Qatar-funded Al Jazeera, a network long criticized for amplifying Muslim Brotherhood narratives—is tactical. It comes as the African Union and the Arab League are scrambling to formulate a response to Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. By introducing the "Palestinian resettlement" canard, Mohamud is trying to make Somaliland "radioactive" to potential allies in Africa who might otherwise be sympathetic to its bid for independence.
A smokescreen for failure
The hysteria emanating from Mogadishu reveals less about Israeli intentions than it does about the fragility of the Somali Federal Government. For over three decades, the international community has poured billions of dollars into Mogadishu, attempting to prop up a central government that exercises little authority beyond the capital’s blast walls. Meanwhile, to the north, Somaliland has built a functioning state with its own currency, elections and coast guard, all without UN recognition.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland shattered the fiction of "One Somalia." It signaled that the West (or at least its keenest strategic operator, Israel) is done waiting for Mogadishu to get its act together. President Mohamud knows that if other nations follow Israel’s lead, his government loses its primary claim to legitimacy: territorial integrity.
The strategic reality: missiles, not migrants
The irony is that the Israel-Somaliland alliance is about survival—just not in the way Mohamud claims. Israel does not need a refugee camp in the Horn of Africa; it needs a radar station.
Somaliland sits on the southern flank of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a choke point through which much of the world’s commerce flows. For the last two years, the Iranian-backed Houthi movement in Yemen has turned this waterway into a shooting gallery, launching ballistic missiles at Eilat and harassing shipping.
The "base" Mohamud fears is likely an intelligence and logistics hub designed to monitor Iranian weapons smuggling and secure the Red Sea. For Israel, Somaliland offers the strategic depth necessary to counter the Iranian encirclement. For Somaliland, Israel offers the military technology and diplomatic weight needed to deter invasion from the south. This is a classic realist security pact—Hard Power for Hard Times.
Amine AyoubThe West must reject the information warfare
The United States and European powers must not be cowed by Mogadishu’s information warfare. There is a risk that the State Department, ever fearful of "escalation," will pressure Israel to walk back its recognition to appease the anger whipped up by Mohamud’s falsehoods. This would be a catastrophic mistake.
The chaos in Mogadishu, now effectively a client of Turkey and Qatar, stands in stark contrast to the order in the Somaliland capital of Hargeisa. Israel has chosen the partner that shares its values and security interests. If the price of that alliance is a few angry press conferences in Mogadishu alleging a Zionist conspiracy, it is a price well worth paying. The "panic" in Mogadishu is the sound of a fiction colliding with reality.
Amine Ayoub, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco