There had already been signs. The American pendulum — meaning the Trumpist one — swings wildly from one extreme to the other. One moment there is an agreement, the next — a war. The U.S. president cannot be relied upon because no AI capable of decoding the man has yet been invented. It seems that even those who believed there was some hidden wisdom there, or perhaps a secret decisive weapon, have given up. The man, simply put, talks nonsense. He has no strategy. He has whims and outbursts.
This time, however, things are somewhat different. As of Saturday evening, when these lines were written, a similar tune was coming from both Tehran and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. According to leaked information, there is already a memorandum of understanding with the Americans that includes agreement on extending the ceasefire by 60 days. What about the machinery of death? The uranium? The ballistic missiles? Support for proxy forces? The fog does not bode well. Just like Israel, the White House failed to understand that war without strategy leads to something between defeat and humiliation.
A 60-day ceasefire means 60 days of Iranian recovery and rearmament. Between the 12-day war in June 2025 and the end of February 2026, Iran managed to accomplish a great deal. It now has experience in rapid reconstruction. And it will do it again.
There is virtually no chance the war will resume in another 60 days. These are 60 days of wartime expenses without an actual war. It is madness. There is debate over the extent of the damage Iran suffered during nearly 40 days of bombing. But a 60-day ceasefire would shift the burden to the American side. Will they keep their entire fleet of ships and aircraft deployed there? There is disagreement over the daily cost of maintaining the U.S. military on alert. It amounts to at least tens of millions of dollars. If that is not attrition, it is unclear what is.
Iran, meanwhile, only benefits. The naval blockade pressured Iran. It was a way to choke the ayatollah regime. But if the ceasefire does indeed include lifting the blockade — even partially — Trump will turn himself into a joke.
There was no need to wait for the leak published Thursday in The New York Times reporting that Israel had been completely sidelined from the negotiations. Benjamin Netanyahu is now viewed as the man who led the United States into the Middle Eastern quagmire. That is not true. The U.S. did exactly what American interests required — regional interests, global interests. But a campaign like this requires planning, strategic thinking and an understanding of the enemy. That did not happen. Trump failed even to understand, let alone persuade, the American public.
The problem is that what appears to be an American failure is also an Israeli disaster. The Iranian regime is far more extreme and powerful, even if the Iranian people suffer and groan under it. Israel is therefore stuck facing three unresolved fronts — Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. The money that will flow to Iran, if there is indeed a ceasefire, will not go to education or welfare. It will go toward the racist obsession of destroying Israel. Hamas and Hezbollah, too, will feel much stronger.
And this is serious because if Netanyahu cannot free himself from the ban on war against Hezbollah — a move that would not have harmed any agreement with Iran — then he can no longer persuade Trump of anything. And if Iran is the one influencing Trump, including on the Lebanese front, what remains of the myth of Israeli influence? Apparently nothing.
Israel could be entering the worst strategic situation in its history: three active fronts and tied hands.
It is hard to believe that such a powerful superpower is backing down before such a fanatical state that should be so weak. But it is happening. One can cling to the illusion that this is deception, because it cannot be real. But here it is. This is no dream. And it is a bad one.