The Israeli attack on Iran early on Friday is just the kickoff of a long campaign and Israelis must be prepared for days of missile and drone fire as more IDF strikes are launched.
Exchanges of fire with Iran's proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen are also possible. Iran has a stockpile of hundreds of ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and thousands of cruise missiles and attack drones.
Israel strikes targets in Iran
The IDF targeted Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and its military's command and control centers. The extent of damage to Iran's ability to retaliate remains unknown, but it is safe to assume that there would be more Israeli strikes on Iran's offensive capabilities to minimize impact on the Israeli home front.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in his on-camera statement that Israel has no war with the people of Iran and is only attacking its regime to prevent it from carrying out its threat to annihilate Israel. But his statement can be understood to say that more than military targets were hit. Israeli officials have said that only if Iran's regime falls, the danger from a nuclear Iran would be lifted.
The Trump administration received advance notice from Israel before the strike began and there was cooperation between the two countries.
Statements by U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the past couple of days, claiming the U.S. has not approved and would not participate in any Israeli-planned attack, were a ruse meant to ensure Iran was caught off guard when the strikes began.
Another aim was to send a clear message to Iran that the U.S. was not involved in the initial attack, most likely so that Washington could be in a position to call for an end to further aggression and for Iran to return to negotiations on the future of its nuclear program.
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Iran’s deputy chief of staff, IRGC commander and senior nuclear scientist killed in Israel’s opening strike on Iran
(Photo: AP)
The IDF first disabled Iran's aerial defenses in northern Iran and in Iraq and struck uranium enrichment sites around the country. The nuclear facility at Natanz, where the most advanced enrichment centrifuges are located, was hit.
The Natanz complex includes a recently completed underground facility to house the newest centrifuges, capable of enriching uranium quickly and where uranium that was enriched to 60% is stored. The IDF believes Iran has in its possession enough material for 15 nuclear bombs of the size of the American bombs used against Japan during WWII.
The Iranians were about to move the centrifuges into the new site, where they would be safe from attack, including bunker-busting bombs that the Americans could use if they were to join the Israeli strikes. Israel saw a window of opportunity to act before the new site was activated.
Iran's supreme leader ordered his regime to increase efforts to complete production of a bomb and Iran was expected to have nuclear capability within a few months. This was a red line Israel said it could not allow to be crossed. The United States gave a green light to Israel to launch its attack out of concern that Iran would be able to use its missiles to deliver a nuclear warhead.
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Iran already said it would retaliate and Israeli officials believe that IDF air defenses would be capable of defending against Iranian missile and drone fire. Video clips from Iran do not indicate the extent of damage caused by the strikes to the Iranian nuclear program and to its military command, but after the air force was able to penetrate Iranian defenses and possibly disable them, more Israeli strikes can be expected in the coming days.
Senior Iranian nuclear scientists, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the commander of the Iranian armed forces were killed in Israel's initial strike. Israel aimed to eliminate the senior command of the military and to prevent rehabilitation of the nuclear program, but also to prevent a massive Iranian attack on Israel.
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Aftermath of an IDF strike on a residential building in Tehran
(Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS)
Israel targeted uranium enrichment facilities and workshops inside urban areas, including Tehran, where bombs were assembled. It also attacked ballistic missile launch sites and storage facilities, cruise missiles and drones. Most were underground and required the work of military special ops that cannot be revealed at this point.
But Iran still retains a stockpile of thousands of missiles and drones and a massive attack on Israel must be expected. The coming hours will reveal how effective the Israeli strike has been on Iran's capabilities to launch ballistic missiles, at the very least. That would determine the scope of Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel.
The announcement of the IAEA on Thursday that Iran was in violation of its nuclear inspection obligations was also a determining factor in Israel's decision to launch its attack and provided the Israeli government not only with a strategic window of opportunity but also with legitimacy for a preventive strike.