Amid the expansion of protests across Iran, Israeli officials remain deeply skeptical that the unrest in the Islamic Republic could lead to the fall of the ayatollah regime, as noted earlier this week by ynet military and security analyst Ron Ben-Yishai. Toppling a regime in a country like Iran requires many components, and according to Israeli assessments, the situation has not yet reached that point. Still, the evolving reality forces Israel to remain prepared for unexpected developments.
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(Photo: Khalil Hamra/ AP, Amir Cohen/ Reuters, Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)via REUTERS)
The protests in Iran are widespread and are approaching the scale of the unrest that followed the killing of Mahsa Amini in September 2022, known as the ‘hijab protest.’ The Iranian currency has again hit a low, and while the protests are broader in scope, Israel’s assessment remains that they are unlikely to bring down the regime.
At the same time, the Iranian regime has not employed the full extent of its force against demonstrators. One explanation is concern over US President Donald Trump and the threats he issued last week, alongside the understanding in Tehran that restraint may actually serve the regime by helping it contain the unrest. In any case, Israel is closely monitoring developments in Iran and is careful to avoid being accused of interference.
Because of the unrest, concerns are growing over a possible miscalculation between Iran and Israel, with each side fearing the other may be planning a surprise attack and therefore launching a preemptive strike. In recent months, Israel has conveyed messages to Iran through several channels stating it has no intention of attacking. Similar messages were sent during the latest protests. The Iranian response has been consistent. Officials in Tehran say they do not believe Israel and view the messages as deceptive.
Clashes between security forces and protesters in Tehran, Tuesday
Iran’s missile exercises have not eased Israeli concerns, but Jerusalem’s assessment is that in any severe scenario there would be warning signs, preparation time and heightened alert. Even so, Israeli officials stress the need to account for the possibility of surprise and to prepare appropriate response scenarios.
Mike Evans, a close associate of President Trump, said earlier that “Trump is not a president of wars and will do everything he can to avoid another war with Iran.” Evans said Trump is using a carrot-and-stick approach toward Tehran. “They know he is serious and not playing games. He already proved that in the previous strike and is giving them an opportunity. President Trump is very smart and will not allow Iran to become nuclear. If they try, he will strike again.”
Intensified ‘mowing the grass’ in Lebanon
Regarding Lebanon, Israel is preparing to step up its activity there in the near future if required, for a limited period and without intent to fully renew the war. The plan involves increased operations, described as more intensive ‘mowing the grass,’ but at a relatively low tempo.
Israeli officials believe Trump has left the decision on whether to resume fighting in Lebanon to Jerusalem once the deadline given to the Lebanese government expires and will back whatever decision Israel makes. In the meantime, Israel is increasing its readiness for broader action in Lebanon, with the campaign still in its formative stages.
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Trump, Israel’s assessment: He has left it to Israel to decide whether to resume fighting in Lebanon
(Photo: Jonathan Ernst/ Reuters)
Against the backdrop of the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Al-Jadeed television channel aired images of a Hezbollah facility in southern Lebanon showing cruise missiles dismantled into parts. The site is located between the villages of Kafra and Siddiqine, south of the Litani River. The report said the Lebanese Army entered the facility two weeks ago and that dismantling efforts are still ongoing as part of attempts to disarm Hezbollah.
The weapons shown were old Soviet drones converted into cruise missiles. The DR-3 missiles have a range of several hundred kilometers, a wingspan of about two meters and a warhead weighing up to 300 kilograms. The images were published two days before Lebanese Army Commander Rudolph Haykal is expected to announce to the Lebanese Cabinet the completion of the first phase of the plan to concentrate weapons in state hands, meaning the disarmament of Hezbollah in areas south of the Litani River.
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Lebanon’s President Aoun: ‘The Israeli strikes raise questions’
(Photo: Hassan Ammar/ AP)
Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon continue. The Hezbollah-affiliated newspaper Al-Akhbar reported on Tuesday that two people were killed in an Israeli strike on the village of Dounine, targeting a hangar surrounded by vehicles and equipment. Earlier, the IDF said it struck Hezbollah terrorists in the village of Khirbet Selm.
Late Monday night, the IDF struck warehouses and military structures belonging to Hezbollah and Hamas at several locations in Lebanon, saying the sites were embedded in civilian areas. Lebanese media also reported casualties following a strike on an industrial building in Sidon. One report said a three-story structure was completely destroyed, with significant damage to nearby buildings and shops.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun criticized the Israeli strikes, saying they “raise many questions, particularly regarding the timing, on the eve of a meeting of the ceasefire monitoring mechanism.” He said the continued strikes were meant to undermine regional and international efforts to prevent escalation, despite Lebanon’s cooperation at various levels. Aoun called on the international community to intervene to end what he described as Israel’s ongoing aggression and to allow the monitoring mechanism to carry out its mission with international backing.
Gaza: intensified searches for Ran Gvily
Israel has identified renewed efforts by Hamas to locate the remains of the last fallen hostage in Gaza, Ran Guaily, in the Zeitoun neighborhood of southern Gaza City. The searches resumed after a two-week pause due to weather conditions. Intensive efforts have taken place over the past two days and may again be halted because of the weather.
An Israeli official said, “The efforts to bring Ran Guaily home are continuing around the clock through various means. Our activity is continuous and intensive.”
After Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned from the United States, Arab media reported that Israel had agreed to reopen the Rafah crossing. Israeli officials have not confirmed the reports, but amid heavy US pressure, the assessment is that the move is very close. Egypt is conditioning its approval on reopening the crossing in both directions.
Saudi channel Asharq reported Sunday, citing sources, that Egypt informed the Palestinian Authority that Israel had agreed to reopen the crossing soon. Palestinian officials familiar with the talks told Ynet that recent political and security meetings in Cairo showed some progress on arrangements for the future of the Rafah crossing and civil and security governance in Gaza.
According to Palestinian sources, about 120,000 Palestinians left Gaza for Egypt during the war, most in coordination with the Egyptian company Ya Hala, with each paying around $5,000. They estimate that about 65,000 Gazans are currently registered and waiting to return once the crossing is reopened.