Before the war, Gulf states urged the United States not to attack Iran. But now, after a month of repeated attacks against them by the ayatollah regime — targeting not only U.S. bases but also airports, hotels and energy facilities — the Gulf monarchies are no longer interested in a quick end to the war, at least not one that would leave the Islamic Republic more radical and strengthened.
The unprecedented Iranian attacks caught Gulf states off guard. While they issued angry statements and some expelled Iranian ambassadors, they did not respond militarily, and for now appear to be projecting weakness toward Tehran. They are also deeply concerned about Iran’s current grip on the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which about a fifth of global oil supply passes, and do not want the war to end with that leverage still in Iranian hands.
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UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
(Photos: Alex Brandon/AP, Evelyn Hockstein/POOL/AFP)
The Washington Post reported Thursday, citing an Arab and a European official, that both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have signaled that if Tehran does not agree to significant limits on its missile, drone and nuclear programs, they would support an escalation of the military campaign to force concessions at the negotiating table. “They are not asking Trump to escalate the war immediately, but to create the conditions that will ensure that on the other side of the Gulf there will be a fair partner when the war ends,” the European official said. “I have never heard ‘let’s finish the job,’ but that is the spirit.”
Seeking a 'more modest' Iran
According to the report, some in the Gulf initially believed the war could lead to the fall of the ayatollah regime. But that hope faded as analysts and officials observed the limited impact of Israeli and U.S. strikes on the regime’s stability. Now, Gulf states are settling for the hope that the war will end with a “change” for the better in Iran’s conduct. “They want a more modest Iran,” a European official said.
He added that this position is nearly uniform across the Gulf: Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain support the stance of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, though they have not joined active efforts to influence the Trump administration. Oman is the exception, opposing the war and continuing to back Tehran regionally. “They are like Tehran’s defense attorney,” the official said.
Regional sources said Iran appears unwilling to accept restrictions on its missile and drone programs. Arab officials warned that ending the war now could encourage further Iranian attacks. “Iran believes it is winning,” one source said, adding that a ceasefire now would set a dangerous precedent, enabling Tehran to strike its neighbors again and use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in the future.
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Trump and Bin Salman: 'Riyadh is considering joining the war'
(Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Iran has already stated it will not return to the previous status of free navigation in the strait. A military source quoted by the Tasnim news agency said Tehran is demanding “sovereignty” over Hormuz and even seeks to impose fees on ships passing through it, similar to Egypt’s tolls in the Suez Canal.
According to the Post, regional officials also fear that a ceasefire would leave Iran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, in a stronger position — particularly given Tehran’s demand to link any ceasefire to a halt in Israeli strikes against Hezbollah. Emirati political analyst Abdulkhaleq Abdulla said that while Gulf states initially warned against war, their message has now shifted: “Finish the job.”
Prisoners of geography
In recent weeks, Gulf states have repeatedly warned they may go beyond defensive measures and strike Iran in response to ongoing missile and drone attacks. So far, however, they have refrained from doing so. Mohammed Baharoon, director of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center, likened the Iranian threat to gangrene: “You invest all efforts to treat it and avoid amputation, but if it spreads, you must amputate.”
The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is considering joining the war. “It’s only a matter of time before the kingdom enters,” a source told the paper.
Still, Gulf states fear Iranian retaliation — especially if a U.S.-brokered ceasefire leaves Tehran emboldened. Andreas Krieg, a Middle East expert at King’s College London, said Iran retains significant escalation options, including attacks on energy infrastructure and desalination facilities in the Gulf. “Iran will not forget. The regime will survive,” he said. “Gulf states must conduct a cost-benefit analysis. They will always live alongside Iran — in many ways, they are prisoners of geography.”
The concern is of a disproportionate Iranian response, heightened by the perception that even a regional power (Israel) and a global power (the U.S.) have struggled to subdue Iran — just as Israel has not decisively defeated Hezbollah or Hamas. “Gulf states are praying we can bring about regime change in Iran, but they believe we won’t — and that Iranian revenge will be served, and they will pay the price,” an Israeli official familiar with the matter told Ynet.
“The situation for Gulf states is very difficult. They are deeply worried about the outcome of the war. Once the Americans leave and we stop, Iran will launch a barrage of 300 missiles at the Emirates. Revenge is best served cold. They understand that. These are the rules of the Middle East. That’s why they don’t dare enter the circle,” he said. He added that after the war, Gulf states will likely seek arrangements with Iran: “From their perspective, your neighbor is your neighbor, even if he harms you.”
What about normalization?
During the war, security cooperation between Israel and Gulf states has intensified, particularly with the UAE and Bahrain, which maintain formal diplomatic ties with Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir held talks with counterparts in several regional countries. Israel has expressed readiness to assist Gulf states in any way needed, while Jordan also plays a key role in countering Iran.
The strengthening of security ties raises the question of whether it can be leveraged into future normalization agreements. The Israeli official said the possibility existed even before the war, and that a favorable outcome could accelerate the process. “But if I had to bet, additional Gulf states will not rush to sign agreements with Israel now — though outside the Gulf, the chances are better,” he said.
First published: 19:08, 03.26.26