On the 10th day of the war, U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran’s missile capabilities had been reduced to “10%, maybe less.” On the 13th day, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “Hezbollah has residual fire left, and we will deal with that too.”
Two weeks later, however, both Iran and Hezbollah are still launching missiles and rockets, while intensifying their fire and shifting tactics.
Hezbollah rocket strikes Nahariya, northern Israel
(Video: Gil Nechushtan, Zeev Krauthammer, Magen David Adom, from social media)
According to the data, the largest number of rocket sirens triggered by fire from Lebanon in two weeks was recorded on Wednesday, when 399 alerts sounded. On the same day, Hezbollah reached a peak of about 500 launches, most of them aimed at Israeli forces operating in southern Lebanon, while about 100 rockets also crossed into Israeli territory. Hezbollah also fired dozens more rockets Thursday at communities in northern Israel.
In practice, Hezbollah has been firing heavy barrages at northern Israeli cities throughout the past week, including salvos of dozens of rockets at a time toward Haifa and the bay area, as well as intense barrages toward Nahariya, Acre, Kiryat Shmona, Karmiel and Safed.
Nuriel Dubin was killed at the Machanaim Junction in one of those barrages. Ori Peretz was killed Thursday in Nahariya in another salvo.
On Thursday night, for the third time since the start of the war, Hezbollah also fired rockets toward central Israel and said it had targeted the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv, and an intelligence base in the city.
Iran missile impact sends car flying in the air in Kafr Qasem
(Video: from social media)
Meanwhile, Iran also appears to have changed its launch tactics over the past week, with attacks causing casualties and heavy damage in northern, central and southern Israel. The number of missiles and drones Iran has launched toward Gulf states has dropped sharply amid threats by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join the fighting and anger in Qatar following a strike on its gas production facilities.
At the same time, there has been no increase in the number of ballistic missile launches toward Israel, which have continued at a pace of about 10 a day, but there has been a change in the launch pattern.
According to data from the Institute for National Security Studies, or INSS, an Israeli think tank, Iran carried out 89 “waves of attack” against Israel in the week through Thursday, compared with 60 in the previous four days. That amounted to a similar pace, 13 a day versus 15. By contrast, Iran did not attack Qatar at all during that period, neither with missiles nor drones, and significantly reduced its attacks on the Emirates and especially Saudi Arabia.
For several days, Iran launched missiles one after another at the same general area in what may have been an effort to locate gaps in Israel’s air defenses. One of the most notable cases was Thursday morning, when seven sirens sounded over several hours in central Israel. Fourteen people were lightly wounded in those barrages. On Saturday, consecutive launches toward the Negev led to direct hits in Dimona and Arad and left dozens of people wounded.
Iranian missile devastates residential area in Arad
(Video: David Amar)
Additional attempts to challenge Israeli air defense systems were seen this week when, after a prolonged period of smaller barrages, and often single-missile launches, Iran began firing missiles simultaneously at different areas. The strike in central Tel Aviv on Tuesday morning came during such an attack. In that case, Iran also used a missile with a relatively small warhead weighing about 100 kilograms, or 220 pounds.
Iran has also continued firing cluster-warhead missiles, whose impacts have caused heavy damage and, in one case in Ramat Gan, deaths. Even so, the number of such missiles being launched appears to be declining. As in the opening stage of the war, Iran has also resumed near-continuous launches, firing one missile just minutes after another and sometimes at the same area. One example came Wednesday morning, when damage was caused in the Hadera area.
Ynet military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai said Iran appears to intensify launches in two situations: when weather and other conditions make it harder to detect launchers as they emerge from cover, and when Israel inflicts severe damage on the leadership of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. It is possible, he said, that the frequent launches on Thursday morning were triggered by the killing of Revolutionary Guard Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri, along with his naval intelligence chief and many members of his staff.
The missile fire, apparently aimed in part at wearing down Israel’s civilian population, is likely to continue until the war ends, Ben-Yishai wrote. Iran amassed about 2,500 missiles and hundreds of launchers before the war, he said, leaving it with substantial remaining firepower.
The launch pattern also suggests that Hezbollah, like Hamas before it, may be timing rocket fire to the hour and half-hour marks. According to data current through Friday morning, the highest number of sirens triggered by rocket fire in northern Israel came at 30 minutes past the hour, with 321 alerts. That was followed by the first two minutes of the hour, with 181 alerts in the first minute and 249 in the second, and by the 14th minute, with 239 alerts. In most other minutes, fewer than 100 alerts were recorded.
In addition, Hezbollah appears to be timing launches to coincide with Israeli television news broadcasts. The number of sirens between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. was significantly higher than during any other hour, with 714 alerts. Between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m., 400 alerts sounded because of rocket fire toward the north, and between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m., 311 alerts were recorded. In every other hour of the day, fewer than 200 alerts sounded because of launches from Lebanon.