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Amine Ayoub
Don't leave a power vacuum: Preventing a failed Islamist state after the mullahs
Opinion: As Iran’s regime fractures after Khamenei’s death, the US and Israel face a narrow window to stop the IRGC from seizing full control; Without decisive action, a nuclear-armed failed Islamist state could emerge from the chaos
Amine Ayoub
|
03.05.26
The death of 'neutrality': why Gulf airspace closure is point of no return
Analysis: Iran’s missile strikes and the Gulf airspace shutdown have shattered decades of strategic neutrality, forcing Gulf states into an open Arab-Israeli-American security alliance driven by shared survival rather than economic pragmatism
Amine Ayoub
|
03.03.26
Algeria’s ‘guillotine of citizenship’: the anatomy of a paranoid regime
Opinion: Algeria’s revised nationality law grants sweeping powers to strip citizenship from native-born critics, raising concerns over political repression and regional instability
Amine Ayoub
|
02.26.26
Morocco’s 'Gaza gamble': why Rabat is sending troops to the strip
Analysis: Morocco has pledged troops and police to a post-war stabilization force in Gaza, aiming to curb Iranian influence and deepen ties with Washington while seeking stronger backing for its sovereignty over Western Sahara
Amine Ayoub
|
02.21.26
The Nile’s 'Red Line': Egypt’s multi-front security crisis
Analysis: The Nile is no longer merely a resource to be managed; it has become an existential red line that is now inextricably linked to the maritime security of the Red Sea and the stability of the entire Mediterranean basin
Amine Ayoub
|
02.18.26
The end of the double game: Why Europe is finally slamming the door on Erdogan’s Syrian ambitions
Analysis: In a 363–71 vote, the European Parliament condemns Turkey’s role in northern Syria, accusing Ankara of destabilizing the region and enabling ISIS jailbreaks, while pledging €620 million in aid to support local security and governance
Amine Ayoub
|
02.16.26
Cairo’s new defense chief and cabinet 'reset' are a tactical retreat from the Abraham Accords
Opinion: President Sisi's reshuffle of Egypt’s cabinet is a move critics call a retreat from regional alignment and a consolidation of military power at home; it is a glaring admission of domestic failure and a strategic retreat into archaic habits of a bygone era
Amine Ayoub
|
02.12.26
The Brotherhood-Hezbollah Axis: lessons from the capture of senior Sunni Atwi Atwi
Opinion: The capture of a senior Muslim Brotherhood figure in southern Lebanon exposes Sunni-Shiite cooperation on the battlefield, shattering Western assumptions and forcing Washington to confront a unified Islamist war effort tied to Iran
Amine Ayoub
|
02.10.26
The Mukaab and the ghost of 1979: Why Mohammed bin Salman is awakening Saudi Islamists
Opinion: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is betting that money and spectacle can replace centuries of religious authority, but the West must not mistake silence for acceptance - radicalism in Saudi Arabia has evolved
Amine Ayoub
|
02.08.26
The new oxygen pipeline? The hidden risks of reopening Rafah
Analysis: Partial reopening under the 'Rafah 2' mechanism marks a high-stakes test of remote-controlled exits and militarized entry, as Israel warns most Hamas tunnels remain intact and questions Egypt’s reliability and strength of international enforcement
Amine Ayoub
|
02.04.26
Gaza's 'technocratic shield': Governance is a survival tactic for Hamas
Analysis: Framed as neutral governance, Gaza’s new technocratic committee masks Hamas’ ongoing military rule, offering the terror group cover, cash and a pathway to survive under the guise of reconstruction
Amine Ayoub
|
02.03.26
From symbolism to statecraft: turning the EU’s IRGC label into a strategy for regime collapse
Opinion: The EU’s long-delayed designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization sends a powerful signal, but without concrete action to support Iran’s uprising and dismantle the regime’s power, it risks becoming symbolism rather than strategy
Amine Ayoub
|
01.31.26
The NATO schism: Madrid’s strategic divorce and the 5% collision
Analysis: Madrid’s refusal to meet new defense spending targets and its embargo on Israeli defense goods have strained ties with Washington, disrupted alliance logistics and exposed a growing rift that threatens NATO cohesion along its southern flank
Amine Ayoub
|
01.25.26
The 'Trump United Nations': Is the Board of Peace replacing the UNSC?
Opinion: The era of the world forum is being superseded by the world boardroom, where security is a commodity and peace is a project managed by a select group of executives and investors
Amine Ayoub
|
01.20.26
Iranian Ayandeh Bank collapse shows how hyperinflation financed the IRGC’s last stand
The October 2025 failure of Bank Ayandeh forced Iran to print money to cover $5 billion in losses, accelerating hyperinflation, hollowing out the economy and exposing a regime relying on repression and capital flight to survive
Amine Ayoub
|
01.17.26
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